Bulletins and News Discussion from September 16th to September 22nd, 2024 - This Megathread Is Dedicated To The Brave Mujahideen Fighters of Afghanistan - COTW: Afghanistan
The COTW was chosen in the wake of the aborted sequel to the attempted assassination of Trump being performed by a guy who is VERY enthusiastic about Ukraine, to the point of trying to sneak Afghan soldiers into Ukraine by setting up a house in Pakistan to house them and then further transport them. He also apparently offered to send thousands of Afghan soldiers to Haiti to help them combat gang violence. Whomst among us doesn't have the numbers of thousands of Afghan soldiers on speed-dial. Do you reckon there's a group chat?
Anyway, while there is still no official recognition of the Taliban's government by any country, China has taken a different course than the late USSR and the US - forming economic in-roads, rather than trying their own invasion. This has been a big boon for the struggling country, with various mines and oil and agriculture deals helping keep things barely afloat. A total disintegration of the social fabric of Afghanistan is not in the interest of any of the powers that border it - China, Pakistan, and Iran, with Russia not too far away - so an interesting dynamic of helping-without-official-recognition has been established. I wonder who will be the first country to fully recognize them?
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Afghanistan! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
At least it's not concerning from a "were the pagers also wired to intercept communications" perspective. there's that famous clip of Nasrallah talking with Assange about how they know that the Israelis are listening in on their communications, so they rely on the sayings and metaphors of local soldiers' villages to encode information; and Hezbollah has gotten thousands of surprise attacks in with the Israelis having no prior warning.
Still, very strange. Given their widespread use in hospitals, I wonder if this was a roundabout way of doing a hospital bombing in Lebanon. Also, apparently the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was also injured by one, so perhaps an assassination attempt there, but I wouldn't have thought that a pager could hold much explosive material without being pretty suspiciously heavy. From the footage, the explosions aren't like, roiling fireballs, I feel like you'd have to be sitting pretty close to one to have it outright kill you, so maybe it was just designed to cause injuries?
It's weird that Israel did this and (so far) haven't followed up with any invasion or aerial bombing attempts, because inciting chaos in your enemy before rolling in the tanks is a common strategy. Indicates to me that a) it hasn't affected all/most of Hezbollah's communications (truthfully I don't know what exact methods Hezbollah uses to communicate with), and/or b) it was just a terrorist event lashing out because recent Israeli defeats (like the Yemen missile, and continued Ws by Hezbollah in the north).
Still, I'm on guard for any movement by Israel soon, in the coming hours or days, because of this and other things (like leaflets being dropped in South Lebanon).
a hand grenade contains 180 grams of explosive, a 25mm autocannon round contains about 32g. a minitor 7 pager weights 180 grams, and a NP-88 weighs 60 grams. a credit card sized, 1cm thick block of explosive weights 74g.
you absolutely do not have to hand it to IOF or the Mossad, but whoever cooked up this scheme has been laughing all afternoon and thinks themselves a genius
worth noting— this gives Israel a way of learning/confirming which state officials in Syria and Lebanon are in direct communication with Hezbollah, and studying how Hezbollah logistically responds to country-wide casualties. the implications here are bigger than just burnmarks on some grunts’ asses. the entity gets a ton of intelligence out of this.
That's only if
A) Hezbollah are the only people using tainted pagers. Plenty of healthcare workers, firefighters, etc. also use them
B) Israel knows the location of all the pagers that went off
An article mentioned mostly hip burns and mangled hands, I'm guessing if it exploded in someone's hand though they may be permanently disabled. A type of terror attack I didn't even think was possible.
I'm inclined to agree. At the very least, these particular devices must have been tampered with, because I'm sure they know of plenty of resistance fighters cell phones any haven't exploded those yet.
The psychological implication they want to convey is that they can explode and personal device but that's clearly not true.