Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Would Lebanon's armed forces get involved? I'm not super well versed in Lebanese politics
Hard to say. Depends on where Israel hits partly. To my understanding, the main Sunni opposition is primarily bakced by the Saudis, whereas the main Christian opposition kind of has dual backing between Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Lebanese politics is frankly kind of a mess, and someone like @LargePenis@hexbear.net could probably explain it better.
Not going to lie, though, the thought of the Lebanese Forces deciding to restart the civil war when they think Hezbollah is cornered has crossed my mind. Geagea seems like enough of a reactionary asshole to do it.
I would like to be paged when said expert explains it, can I do that somehow? or does someone need to @ me?
We don't have anything for that I think. I would say just come back and check later.
@redline@lemmygrad.ml @mkultrawide I'm pretty sure we do, but it's not very common to be asked to be linked
Your overall assessment is correct. The wounds of the Civil War are still present and the sectarian lines are still drawn when it comes to Hezbollah especially. Right-wing Christians are mainly apathetic towards Israel and hate Hezbollah, mostly due to generations of Western brainworms and borderline Nazi ideology being transmitted through the Pro-French colonial class of Maronites. Other Christian groups are more flexible in their approach, because some of them like the Greek Orthodox actually were the brains and bodies behind the old Lebanese Communist Party and other leftist groups, so some of them are pro-Resistance and some got absorbed into the post-civil war economic elite and are against the resistance. Sunnis are split between a slighly Jihadi camp that believes that Hezbollah should get critical support because this is a chance to finally fight the Israelis, and another group that hates Hezbollah because of old grievances through Saudi Arabia and because of Hezbollah's role in suppressing the mainly Sunni Syrian Revolution and the war afterwards in Syria. The second group is sadly larger. The main Druze group is the Progressive Socialist Party which has been led by the Jumblatt family for three generations now. They kinda flip in their opinions from time to time, but the spirit of Kamal Jumblatt is still alive and their absolute red line is any degree of support towards Israel, so they can be counted in the pro-Resistance faction if we're really in all out war now. Shias are almost unanimously pro-Resistance across lands and borders, there's an impressive universal spirit in Shia Muslims that makes them invested in any Shia business wherever in the world it is.
The Lebanese Army won't do any offensive actions anywhere, it is barely an army in the first place and they're too useless ideologically. I'm slightly worried about the Maronite nazis starting shit in Beirut, but I think that the movement of fighters from Iraq, Iran and Yemen towards Lebanon will prevent a civil war. The LF are not even close to 10% of Hezbollah's power, they also won't be able to start shit if we have 50k PMU fighters in Beirut protecting the rear while Hezbollah is occupied in the South. I don't think that people really understand how formative this moment is for the Shia identity in the region, literally everything that happened since 1979 for the Shias has been building to this one single moment. You had a marginalised defeated group who left the 80s as a major proud group in the region, this is the moment that they have been waiting for. I'll elaborate on the Shia moment more in a different comment this week, I just need to gather my thoughts a bit and write a clean comment.
hope the ping works
great stuff, kind of a nightmare to take on a real attempt at understanding the state of play and all the factions in and outside the region