Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk on Wednesday set new targets for artificial intelligence products including self-driving software and using humanoid robots in factories, though he acknowledged he's been optimistic before.
I recall he claimed fully automated driving would be ready by 2016, and back then I actually believed him.
When other makers said the technology was at least 5 years away, and probably more like 10, I thought they were losers who couldn't compete.
LOL apparently I too was an idiot for believing Musk, My wife and I even bought a house in the country, where driving a car is a must for shopping and daily life in general, in confidence that we soon would have fully autonomous cars.
1 thing is for sure, when we finally switch to fully electric cars, there is zero chance they will be Tesla, and that's not because he made 1 mistake.
Yeah, an article with such a headline should be banned from all news-themed communities since 2016 at the very latest, when he proclaimed that autonomous driving is a solved problem.
Regardless, he's saying this stupid shit for more than 10 years now. Self driving cannot be solved without an artificial general intelligence because there has to be an understanding of what other people are going to be doing
Eh. You can probably solve it with a good enough artificial narrow intelligence. Or/and dedicated infrastructure, inter-car communication protocols, etc. The issue is it's solving the wrong problem altogether.
If there was dedicated lanes/infrastructure it might be possible but makes more sense for cities to improve public transportation. A bus/train is a big fancy car powered by a general intelligence.
I think they used to include RADAR in their cars, which is probably better for handling weather conditions that would interfere with light based systems (fog, snow, rain, etc.). They took it out, with Musk claiming they could do FSD with just cameras. Probably it was about cost or supply, and I think they decided to add it back recently.
Self driving cars are a bad idea. There, I said it. It's solving the wrong problem with technology that is nowhere near ready. The world is simply too dynamic and the "edge cases" matter.
Better safety features, however, will be a great side effect of this research though.
It sounds like your saying that self driving cars moving to the consumer market too soon is more of the problem. Am I understanding that correctly? If so, I agree. I think the tech is more like 10-15 years out still at least. There may be other smaller applications sooner but the continued improvement of safety features can be done now.
I'm not even sure 10-15 years is good. They've been 10-15 years for 10-15 years already. I'm personally at the point where they're square in the "flying cars" category (which is coming "real soon now"!).
Detecting things is easy. Finding the road and following it is easy. Stopping the car when an obstruction is in the way is easy. What's not easy are the 100,000 things that the developers haven't thought of that happen in a real-world dynamic environment. And it's a situation where lives are at stake so you need to get those right.
And then there is the issue that we already have "self-driving cars" in the form of light rail, busses, taxis, etc.
I think the combination of human driver with "AI Assist" for cruise control, avoiding obstacles, and other things is likely the way to go for cars for some time.
The thing is it's been "real close" for ~10 years. But they've solved the "easy" problems. In development you spend 90% of your time on 10% of the problems. This is why fusion power has been "real close" for 30 years as well. Those remaining problems are the hard ones.
I genuinely don't know why Tesla doesn't just focus on the safety aspects of their tech rather than the "self-driving" BS. Having a car that will stop for me if the car in front slams their brakes on unexpectedly is a great thing. That's a lot of accidents avoided.