Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.
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Lol at people downvoting what they don’t want to hear.
On a positive note, Harris is still leading 4/7 swing states in the WaPo averages: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
Down outing because anyone watching polls has seen floods of bullshit polls flood the arena in the past few weeks. They're totally made up and inaccurate, and in cahoots with the Trump campaign to try and give credence to another attempt and overthrowing the government by crying about the election results.
I’ve seen the reports. I highly doubt any of the arm chair statisticians (who have never taken a day of mathematical or proof-level stats) have a clue what they are talking about. The polls’ histories and lean are factored into 538’s averages. They are not new to this.
And how many polls are left leaning? The graph posted a couple of days ago on midwest claims 35% are right leaning, and a correlation with the drop in support for Harris. What it doesn’t say is the proportion of democratic polls, and there really isn’t a correlation over the length of history shown.
Hard to make informed decisions when half the information is hidden. (But arm chair statisticians don’t recognize the issue do they?)
Left or right leaning isn't the problem. Deliberately skewing the averages is. I don't care for Nate Silver, but in his own words: https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
A .5% shift in bullshit data explains all of this right here. Polling is useless anymore anyway, but when you are in Trump's little circus of assclowns who want to form a pretext of something like a stolen election, it sure as fuck serves a purpose.
Edit: and then you have shit like this: https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2669441230/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/
Not suspicious or coordinated at all.
I’ll give you your references. Will have to read later.
It's because right-wing pollsters are flooding the landscape with fudged polls. They're literally all liars, why do we trust their polling methodologies. Seems to me they're just setting up for the eventual loss so they can point to this polling during the Steal 2.0.
Bingo!
Ehhhhhh, yes they are putting out more polls but all reputable polling aggregators, including 538, account for them and their biases.
You can read about it here:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding
Nate Silver IS a right winger, though, so I don't believe anything on his site, and I especially don't believe him on this topic. Even if he wasn't outright a right winger, polls do not matter and are frequently incorrect for various reasons.
Plus, he's no longer affiliated with 538.
Calling Silver a right winger is more than a bit silly. He's not as far left as some but damn, to call hin right wing, that's just some kind of ridiculous.
And no, he's not affiliated with 538 but he is explaining how polling aggregation, which 538 and others do, works.
Again, even if he isn't an outright right winger, that's fine. I'm willing to back off on that. But polls do not matter, and in fact the only thing they seem to do is reduce turnout. I really don't care about Nate's thoughts, and never have since 2016. I think a lot of people stopped trusting polls and definitely stopped trusting him back then.
All they do is predict the future.
Here's 538 going over the 2020 predictions (in a historically difficult polling year):
Even in a year when the polls were mediocre to poor, our forecasts largely identified the right outcomes. They correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races.
They sure didn't get 2016 right, which is what I referenced and what caused distrust. Just because they got 2020 right doesn't mean they'll get 2024 correct. It's meaningless and only serves to make people feel like they don't have to turn out. They definitely don't just "predict the future".
Also, I'm not sure if quoting the very pollsters that got 2016 wrong will make people trust them now. It's certainly not working for me.
Goodness gracious.
In 2016, 538 argued trump had a 1/4 chance of winning. And the thing about 1/4 changes is that they happen every so often, about, oh. 1/4 times.
And meanwhile, if you actually read what I quoted, you'll note how astoundingly accurate they were in 2020.
And if you or anyone else is dumb enough to see "trump has a 51% chance of winning" and that somehow makes you not want to vote, damn, how many tries does it take you to put your shoes on the correct feet? Three?
And if you or anyone else is dumb enough to see "trump has a 51% chance of winning" and that somehow makes you not want to vote, damn, how many tries does it take you to put your shoes on the correct feet? Three?
I already voted, so don't attempt insinuate that I'm not voting. You do realize that most people do not vote, right? And that most people are indeed idiots when it comes to politics? It's those people that will not turn out when it's needed because they saw a pollster say their candidate was ahead.
We're in a country where a known racist conman was elected.
You do realize that most people do not vote, right?
Except that isn't true. In 2020, 2/3rds of eligible voters voted. Which, if your math is rusty, is a healthy majority of people.
And that most people are indeed idiots when it comes to politics? It's those people that will not turn out when it's needed because they saw a pollster say their candidate was ahead.
I mean, if this is correct, polls showing trump ahead should depress Right votes which I presume we agree is a good thing. (Though, this seems counter to the whole narrative about Republican pollsters flooding the zone.)
I dunno, it really seems like you have a lot of problems with polls that are simply misunderstanding, like not knowing how aggregation works, not understanding what a probabilistic prediction is or just ignoring reality (like the impressive number of accurate predictions in most cycles.)
I think to dislike something, you should be moderately informed about it. Your attitude to polling feels a bit like right wing attitudes towards lgbtq stuff "I don't get it, I don't want to learn about it so I dislike it!"
Well yeah, but that's assuming their pollster quality metric is actually good. Without knowing the result, who's to say that previously reputable pollsters weren't "bought" this cycle. With the billionaire interest and dark money floating around, why not?
Polls are shit, go vote!
This is getting into some pretty nonsense conspiracy level.
Given that high quality pollsters like Emerson, Sienna, the Times are all showing similar movements in their polls, your theory about buying out reputable pollsters requires most pollsters to simultaneously burn their reputations, be open to corruption etc allegations and presumably suffer criminal penalties as most of their polls are technically done for a client. And none of whom are instead exposing the very offer as a huge media boost? And for what? So the polls look marginally better for trump?
This kind of wishful thinking reminds me of listening to stolen election nonsense, where yeah, you can make believe a conspiracy where the Dems bought off a bunch of judges, election officials, forensic analysts etc but it beggars belief.
All polls are useless:
This article is pure silliness but extrapolating from it.to say all polls are useless is to miss even the point of the article!
Yes, national polls aren't particularly helpful because of the electoral college. Which means state level polling is what matters. And polls 6 months out, are not helpful. This is why no polling aggregator is still including them.
Meanwhile, in reality, the polling aggregators pretty much called every 2022 midterm race. In 2020, 538 "correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races."
Meanwhile, factually and statistically, out of all the presidential polls ever conducted, they're only 60% correct.
All polls are useless.
You are fundamentally misunderstanding the difference between polling aggregators, like 538 and a poll.
Though, if you really believe what you're saying, how crazy lucky do you think, 538 must have been to get 32/35 senate races right, 417/435 house races and the presidential rave. Seeing as they repeated the performance in 2022, those lucky jerks should be going to Vegas, not working! /s
Yeah, it's kind of amazing.
If there's a good poll for Kamala, it's upvotes to the moon. If it's a good one from trump, voted to the underworld.
That sort of hive mind, shut out anything I dislike attitude is the same attitude that makes half the country ignore any and all criticism of trump.
I think you’ll find the same number of people saying that polls are meaningless and to just vote in any of these “poll says” threads.
Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.