Harris leads Trump 2-1 among the earliest voters, many driven by abortion access: new poll
Harris leads Trump 2-1 among the earliest voters, many driven by abortion access: new poll
A USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows the presidential race tied, but there's a divide between early voters and those who plan to wait for Nov. 5.
Doesn’t matter, vote
As Trump found out in 2020, only the final vote count matters.
As Hillary and Trump found out in 2016.
It matters, but only because Dems tend to vote early while Repubs vote on election day. If the ratio was 1:1, either Republican voting patterns would have changed drastically or Democrat turnout would be tanking.
Let's drive it up further. Republicans tend to vote more on election day, so let's make sure the early vote grows larger and larger
Register to vote if you haven't. Today is the deadline in some states like Pennsylvania!
Find opportunities to volunteer around you and online
Voting early is also helpful for campaigns because they can stop bothering the people who've already voted and move on to other voters (that you vote is known, but who you vote for is not)
For anyone thinking, "dems always vote early. This means nothing", consider :
This is the first presidential election since roe VS Wade fell.
This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.
There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that's me) that hate trump and can't wait to vote against him. Just look at Haley's primary votes. People talk about how the dems have lost young men but the Republicans, I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump's antics. It will just depend what state those balances work out in.
This is the first presidential election since Jan 6.
Why would we expect to see turnout in Nov of 2024 surpass turnout in Nov of 2022 based on an event that happened in Jan of 2021?
There are a shit load of registered republicans and former republicans (hi that’s me) that hate trump and can’t wait to vote against him.
The NeverTrump Republican is purely mythological. Anyone who was going to change parties did it back in 2020, and even then Trump energized far more lazy Rs than he lost among the Cheney wing of the party. This is evidenced by what few NeverTrump Republicans campaigned in the primaries getting crucified by their own party base.
I would argue, have lost twice as many or more numbers of millenials and boomers from Trump’s antics
You'd expect something like that to show up in the polls. Unfortunately, Ds and Rs are running neck-and-neck, in large part due to the internal policy among Democrats to purge its more progressive elements (your Cori Bushs and Jamaal Bowmans) in favor of corporate democrats more loyal to the donors than the constituencies.
Ds and Rs alike are facing headwinds from their own policies.
why would we expect to see turnout in Nov of 2024 surpass turnout in Nov of 2022 based on an event that happened in Jan of 2021?
Because it's a presidential election year. Turnout is always higher in those elections.
I think you could argue too that a LOT of Dems are going to be voting in person this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Last election was during Covid and Democrats took it far more seriously than Republicans who thought it was all made up or whatever.
DOESN'T MATTER - GO VOTE!!!
Fucking good.
I actually wish they wouldn't publish early results like this. Because you know there are people who will now go "well, I guess I don't actually need to vote afterall" or "I guess my Jill Stein vote is actually harmless afterall" etc.
This sort of thing (IMO) potentially gets less Harris votes down the line.
It will also motivate Trump voters to get to the polls to counter. Plus a 2-1 at this point just shows Democrat enthusiasm being high, which is good, but early vote numbers are a poor predictor of election outcomes.
That's why they do it! Gotta manufacture that last-minute nail-biter to keep the eyes glued to the TV for their 24 hour coverage leading up to the polls closing, and as long as it takes to count each state's votes!
Dems: We got this.
Reps: Fuck I gotta go vote.
Please don't get complacent! Return your ballots, make sure your friends and family have a plan to vote, donate and volunteer; it's easy and might make all the difference!
Winning, losing, whatever, GO AND VOTE!
A Canadian provincial (state equivalent) election just happened and a number of races have a margin of difference under 200 votes. And though the polls were reasonably correct overall there were several upsets that were more than 10% off from polling like my riding. Campaigning makes a difference.
Get every eligible voter who is sick of Trump to go and cast their ballot. Get every man, woman and person you know out to protect American uteruses, American democracy, American freedom.
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