Then president told European commissioners in 2020 that ‘Nato is dead’ and the US would never defend Europe if it were attacked
Donald Trump told the president of the European Commission in 2020 that the US would “never come help” if Europe was attacked and also said “Nato is dead”, a senior European commissioner said.
Multiple news outlets said the exchange between Trump and Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2020 was described in Brussels on Tuesday by Thierry Breton, a French European commissioner responsible for the internal market, with responsibilities including defence.
“You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,” Trump said, according to Breton, who was speaking at the European parliament.
According to Breton, Trump also said: “By the way, Nato is dead, and we will leave, we will quit Nato.”
Trump has been polling higher recently, and that scares the fuck out of Europe, because they know Trump will at best allow Putin to steamroll the region and, at worst, actively use US resources to help dictatorships expand their sphere of influence, culminating in WWIII.
The strangest thing about this, to me, is that it's obvious that another Trump presidency would be disaster for a lot of governments in Europe, but what are they actually doing about it?
All I see are the massively successful disinformation campaigns coming out of Russia.
And Republicans still refuse to see that he’s jumping to Putin’s tune. He’s very actively supporting the destruction of, and doing it himself, democracy globally. These Republicans will absolutely follow the piper toward their Russian overlords as soon as America and democracy crumbles and they need a ‘strong leader’ to take care of them. Simps.
Even having Trump on the ballot is risking civil war or at least collapsing of the union. I imagine a fight over him lying that he won again will be enough of a spark in the powder room.
And remember, the problem has NEVER been Trump. He's just a stupid, fat, orange moron. The US is fucked bc Trump supporters exist and are tolerated.
The GOP gives aid and comfort to the enemies of the constitution and the country. They're not a legitimate party, or even citizens.
Yeah, I came across a Russian troll disguising as faux-centrist-progressive advocating for American isolationism, stating that Trump is for the better than Biden. American foreign policy has obviously been detrimental except when it's a just war and in support of a country attacked unprovoked, like Ukraine. Said commenter says Ukraine is a corrupt country anyhow and losing so it's a lost cause (the Russo-Ukraine war is in a stalemate objectively speaking). He also argued Joe Biden is worse than Trump for supporting Israel's genocidal war on Gaza so Trump is better foreign policy wise, even though Trump is way friendlier to Israel by setting up the US embassy in Eastern Jerusalem.
Well silver linings, I guess, but I'm a lot more optimistic now about the Military safety of Europe than I was 2 years ago. 2 years ago I feared Putin was thinking about maybe even taking the entirety of Europe with Trump out of the way and now we know he barely managed to steal a few kilometers of land in the Ukraine and he's relatively easily kept at bay.
A large factor in this is Russia being a defacto dictatorship requiring lots of obscurity so that he can rob the people blind, but that obscurity means that the army too has been robbed blind. It means their economy never grew to the full potential it had and right now is about the size of Italy.
Russia won't be a threat for many decades to come and even then will be little more thab a nuisance.
China is a problem but now it's becoming clean that it too had similar issues like Russia for similar reasons. You take a small group of privileged people that take all they want in a dictatorship and corruption goess wild. I honestly don't think the Chinese military will be able to do much against European armies either, especially with the distance.
Trump gets elected. Populists with ties to Russia win elections across Europe. Due to a lack of US support, and delays in what has been promised, Ukraine loses the war against Russia.
Although on paper the US stays in NATO, Trump sows enough doubt about coming to European allies' defense, that US led NATO is effectively dead. Russia has just won a significant victory in Ukraine. Their economy is on a war footing, their troops are battle hardened, they have significant reserves. Europe is divided and alone.
An emboldened Russia makes good on their public and repeated promise to 'cause trouble' for Finland and the Baltics.
Russia tests European NATO. In the past they've engaged in the occasional poisoning, the use of a nerve agent, sent bombers which stop just short of the border, engaged in military exercises, etc. Now they increase the frequency of these provocations, safe in the knowledge the US will not get involved.
Whether deliberate or by accident a mistake is made or a skirmish erupts.
The Suwalki Gap, which connects Belarus with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, is very hard to defend. Unlike Russia, which is now on a war footing and ramping up production, Europe is not fully prepared due to decades of underinvestment, division, and complacency.
Russia makes significant gains. Commanders on the ground seize the initiative. Russia takes a gamble that NATO without the US won't respond, and commits to a full invasion of the Suwalki gap. European NATO troops are quickly overrun, as has long been predicted.
European NATO, including the UK and France, have to choose if they will come to Poland and Lithuania's defense. Russia gambles that they will not.
Option A: While some NATO (Russian allied) member states decide not to come to Lithuania and Poland's aid, at least some do. They are afraid to escalate to a nuclear strike, so they respond with conventional means. To defend NATO territory, European NATO must capture Kaliningrad, although it is home to Russian nuclear weapons. OR France and the UK realise that capturing Kaliningrad is likely to precipitate a Russian nuclear strike, so come to the conclusion they must pre-emptively launch.
Option B: NATO member states decide not to come to Lithuania and Poland's aid. Russia connects Kaliningrad with Belarus. The Baltics are now cut off from Poland. Europe is permanently weakened. In a few years time, Russia takes another gamble, each time the chance of conflict with European NATO increases and option A arises.
Alternative:
Repeat Steps 1-5.
6. Our leaders all turn out to be incredibly competent and rational, things stay under control, and mistakes are solved diplomatically.
7. What remains of European NATO is forced to ramp up military spending significantly. Without the US nuclear umbrella, these European states decide they also need their only nuclear capability. This significantly increases the likelihood of nuclear war and a pre-emptive strike.
8. Russian allied or go it alone populist run countries, side with China/Russia for economic reasons or due to increased interference from Russia/China. Their countries remain relatively prosperous, as they don't need to increase defense spending. They share advanced tech with Russia/China.
9. US allies in South East Asia notice that the US is increasingly alone, and that the Russian/Chinese sphere of influence is increasing. Some choose China's side, because they have come to the conclusion that the era of US dominance is ending.
10. The chance of nuclear proliferation increases. Increasingly alone, Japan breaks a long taboo, and acquires nuclear weapons, an option they have been discussing in the last few years in part due to Trump threatening not to come to their aid and due to Russian threats. South Korea acquires nuclear weapons, an option they have been discussing in recent years, in part due to Trump. Etc. etc.
11. An emboldened China/Russia decides to engage in increased provocations to test US resolve; Taiwan, Korea, the Kurils.
12. Whether deliberate or by mistake, a skirmish erupts, ...