The Soft Landing Is Global, but It’s Cushiest in America: Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out
Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out.
The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.
After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.
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Part of the reason that economic growth has been so surprisingly strong in the United States is simple: The American government has continued to spend a lot of money.
Government expenditures as a share of overall output hovered around 35 percent in America in the years leading up to the pandemic, based on I.M.F. data. But in 2020 and 2021, they jumped above 40 percent as the government responded to the coronavirus with about $5 trillion in relief and stimulus to people, businesses, institutions, and state and local governments.
Both states and households have only slowly spent down the savings they amassed during those pandemic years, so the money has continued to trickle through the economy like a slow-release booster shot. On top of that, government spending has remained elevated as the Biden administration has begun to make sweeping infrastructure and climate investments.
The US was one of very few countries (I believe only Japan did the same) to pump significant stimulus money into households. It boosted households, and it has kept consumer spending afloat until now, but it also inflated US national debt even more.
The Tax Foundation is an international research think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1937 by a group of businessmen in order to "monitor the tax and spending policies of government agencies". The Tax Foundation collects data and publishes research studies on U.S. tax policies at both the federal and state levels. Its stated mission is to "improve lives through tax policy research and education that leads to greater economic growth and opportunity".
Maybe didn't seem significant to you, but it did to me and a lot of other people. Made a huge financial difference at the time for me. And I would have had a hole in my finances now if it hadn't been for that.