The Soft Landing Is Global, but It’s Cushiest in America: Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out
Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out.
The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.
After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.
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Part of the reason that economic growth has been so surprisingly strong in the United States is simple: The American government has continued to spend a lot of money.
Government expenditures as a share of overall output hovered around 35 percent in America in the years leading up to the pandemic, based on I.M.F. data. But in 2020 and 2021, they jumped above 40 percent as the government responded to the coronavirus with about $5 trillion in relief and stimulus to people, businesses, institutions, and state and local governments.
Both states and households have only slowly spent down the savings they amassed during those pandemic years, so the money has continued to trickle through the economy like a slow-release booster shot. On top of that, government spending has remained elevated as the Biden administration has begun to make sweeping infrastructure and climate investments.
Getting real tired of constantly seeing news articles saying "The economy is healthy! The US has never been richer."
Meanwhile, cost of food has never been higher. Rent has never been higher. People are still getting laid off left and right.
I feel like I am being gaslit by economists. Are economists all just yes men who are afraid to tell their clients that their practices are unsustainable?
I mean, believe it or not the rate of people dying from infectious diseases decreased in 2020 compared to where it was at in 1918
Like, I guess I'm glad we're doing better than 2008 and 2020 and other meltdown years like that, but with years like that weighing on the average better than average doesn't mean much
... administration officials say Mr. Biden is keenly aware that prices remain too elevated for many families, even as key items, like gasoline and household furnishings, are now cheaper than they were at their postpandemic peak.
And yet there is a general belief across administration officials and their allies that there is little else Mr. Biden could do unilaterally to force grocery prices down quickly.
Ugh, I swear every single issue with this administration is just "We understand there is a problem, but you can't expect us to do anything about it!"
Economists are zealous advocates for their employers. Which is fine. If I hire a lawyer I expect them to be on my side. The only problem is when we pretend that they aren't just saying what their employer wants them to say.
Meanwhile, cost of food has never been higher. Rent has never been higher. People are still getting laid off left and right.
These are statements that are literally almost always true. Prices always rise by design and there are always some companies going through hard times and paying people off.
Maybe you have an argument that it's "unsustainable" and there is no doubt that the previous period of inflation is still putting massive pressure on people's finances, but at the same time the outlook is good for the economy.
It might be tough to hear that because you are struggling, but you are not the economy, and where you are right now is not necessarily where you'll be down the road in a year.
Meanwhile household debt is sky rocketing because those families can’t afford their necessities anymore and have little recourse but to put it on credit cards.
Meanwhile families are hitting the streets at record levels while layoffs are happening across the board.
Meanwhile tent cities are popping up all over the country at levels never seen before in the last 50 years.
This is because you don't realise how bad life is elsewhere. You have a good home with running water and heating. That alone is something hundreds of millions can't even dream of. Access to fresh drinking water alone puts you, as an American, way above many people.
American population is rich as fuck compared to the rest of the world.
But according to American Community Survey (ACS) data from the Census Bureau, 522,752 US households lacked complete plumbing access in 2021. Of these households, 347,943 didn't have a bath or a shower, 419,971 lacked hot or cold running water, and 246,884 had neither.
But sure. Homes in colder parts of the U.S. can keep heated. They might have to use a wood stove and keep themselves in the one room the wood stove heats, but they can keep it heated.
No policy or political decision has had a more drastic positive effect on the average American than the new deal. After 80 years of it being gutted we still benefit from it.
The government should save up in good times and spend in bad times. Sure the highs will be lower, but the lows will be higher. And we all benefit from useful public works.
The US was one of very few countries (I believe only Japan did the same) to pump significant stimulus money into households. It boosted households, and it has kept consumer spending afloat until now, but it also inflated US national debt even more.