Like countless other hostilities, the stealthy Israeli missile and drone strike on Iran doesn’t risk war. It is war.
But this, in fact, is what actual war looks like these days: Sometimes it’s a volley of 300 missiles and drones, and sometimes it is lean, targeted, and carried out covertly. Gone are the days of vast conquering armies and conventional military confrontations between two parties. So long as experts, the government, and the media worry only about a kind of war that is obsolete, it cannot see the war right in front of our faces.
Great article on the evolving face of warfare and how, as long-range and unmanned systems replace on-the-ground and manned conflict, people are assuaged into treating missiles and bombs being lobbed between countries as something "other" than war.
But this, in fact, is what actual war looks like these days: Sometimes it’s a volley of 300 missiles and drones, and sometimes it is lean, targeted, and carried out covertly. Gone are the days of vast conquering armies and conventional military confrontations between two parties.
So, like what's happening in Ukraine right now?
I mean they use drones for some deep strikes causing minor damage but most of the actual advancement is made using artillery and boots on the ground.
Drones have extreme effect on the Ukrainian battle field as there is no secrecy anymore. Every inch of the front and the hinterland is permanently watched by both sides via drones. But yeah you are right the actual advancement is still made on the ground
Every inch of the front and the hinterland is permanently watched by both sides via drones.
Are you seriously claiming there are enough drones to have full surveillance not only over the entire front but also the lands around and far behind it?
Drones have had and have a significant impact. But they are not that numerous and covering - that's not feasible nor even physically possible (resources + products + management). There's no "permanent drone watch".
Notably, drones are used for more than just observation. They are used for targeted strikes, dropping shells, or drone-suicide sabotage strikes.
Drones are important sure. I am not sure how important. It is no surprise that Ukraine cannot do large scale combined arms maneuver warfare though. Neither Ukraine or Russia is trained in that and Ukraine does not have conventional air support to a large extent. I would not attribute it entirely to drones.
Everyone in the world (except for Russia, with their 'special operation' euphemism) recognizes the invasion of Ukraine as a war. People are still pretending that Israel bombing targets inside Iran and Iranian military units in other countries, and Iran launching a large-scale missile strike against Israel, isn't a war. It's no longer a proxy war, it's a direct conflict, but because people are still stuck in exactly that mode of thinking- that 'war' means artillery and troops and taking ground- people are treating this as something else.
I don't think the author is correct that war won't still look like the WW1/2 paradigm of conflicts as well, but as of right now there are 16 countries involved in the Israel/Iran not-war:
Direct involvement:
Israel
Iran
US
UK
Syria
Iraq
Jordan
Yemen
Lebanon
Logistical involvement (including intelligence sharing and air defense deployment):
Kuwait
UAE
KSA
Qatar
Oman
Djibouti
Bahrain
I think the salient point is that the US's insistence that they/we're not yet in a war is a lie designed to both avoid blame being put where it belongs (Israel's genocide of Palestinians, and the US's involvement, that kicked this all off), and to temper calls for more action to stop the war, which will require stopping Israel in Gaza.
By calling for preventing a war, the US is attempting to blame future actions, whereas if they acknowledge we're already in a war, they'd have to admit that it's because of actions that already took place, and the US wants desperately to make Iran the bad guys here, and claim this has nothing to do with Israel doing war crimes both in Gaza and in Lebanon.
Yes, but a handful of conventional missiles going back and forth against symbolic targets is not a very useful definition of a war, much less a world war, if for no other reason than it is to broad to be useful. The on again/off again three way between India/China/Pakistan comes to mind, as might India and Canada if the definition goes much beyond that. The word war tends to imply that nations don’t have active trade between them for instance, and generally implies that at least one side is attempting to achieve some sort of military victory.
Gone are the days of vast conquering armies and conventional military confrontations between two parties. So long as experts, the government, and the media worry only about a kind of war that is obsolete, it cannot see the war right in front of our faces.
The article makes a good point about the global warfare already underway, but is it really the WWI/WWII template that distracts people from considering today's global warfare as WWIII? During the Cold War we all came to imagine WWIII as a sudden and total nuclear devastation brought about by conflicting superpowers. When people express relief that WWIII didn't yet happen, they may mean "at least we didn't all get nuked."
I think he is trying to say this is the way it is and implies that this is where it is going. I do not buy it. This may just be a run up. We have not seen major powers engage and I hope we do not. I also do not agree with his characterization of the Russia Ukraine conflict.
Agreed. Also, WW1 and WW2 were characterized by total war, where the economy shifts to a military economy and everything else becomes secondary. None of the major powers in the world are engaging in total war right now.
To me, it's not WW3 until that happens. Hopefully, it never does.
Gone are the days of vast conquering armies and conventional military confrontations between two parties.
I'm sure they thought the same before the outbreak of WW2 as The-War-To-End-All-Wars had been so destructive.
I've heard other analysis that suggests the current state of play in the world resembles that in the run-up to WW1 and WW2. It would only take something like North Korea escalating aggression for the Trilateral Axis/Axis of Evil to become emboldened by the hope that the US is too distracted elsewhere and they could make their play for Taiwan, the Baltic states and/or Israel in the hope that they can radically change the status quo into one that better favours them going forward, shifting the balance of power away from the West. That could get messy very quickly.
Toffler's 1996 book uses 'anti-war' to present the idea that the wars of the 21st Century would be so different from past wars that we needed a new name for the conflicts. He predicted a massive war with non-state actors, like the current fight against ISIS, before 9/11/2001.
People actually suggested this in the days after the 9/11 attacks; that we should not talk about a 'War On Terror,' but the idea was quickly shot down by so-called patriots.