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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 6th to May 12th, 2024 - The Nagorno-Karabakh Nosedive - COTW: Armenia

Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.


Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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  • The Economist - In South-East Asia, the war in Gaza is roiling emotions

    Far more than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war in Gaza is rattling public opinion in three key South-East Asian countries: Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. The first two have Muslim-majority populations, and Singapore, largely ethnic-Chinese, has a Muslim minority of 16%. As on campuses in America and in street protests in Europe, the sympathies among those who are concerned about the conflict—and who in Singapore include many young non-Muslims—are for Palestinians suffering from Israel’s heavy-handed prosecution of the war.

    Strong feelings have thus made the war a political challenge in ways that are connected, but also vary from country to country. Malaysia’s prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, is by far the most strident leader in South-East Asia in support of the Palestinians. Mr Anwar has decried what he says was Western pressure to condemn Hamas, the hardline group ruling Gaza that started the war with a brutal raid on Israel.

    While Palestine maintains an official embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Hamas can boast an unofficial one. Mr Anwar’s government has banned Israeli ships from docking. Politicians join rallies against the West’s backing of Israel.

    Mr Anwar’s stance is no surprise. He has long espoused Palestinian independence. Malaysia itself has refused to recognise Israel. Meanwhile his chief challenge comes from PAS, an ultra-conservative Islamic group and the largest party in parliament. He cannot afford to let pas outflank him on religious issues, or he loses power.

    comes from PAS, an ultra-conservative Islamic group

    If PAS is ultra-conservative then every single Western political party is ultra-ultra-ultra-ultra-ultra-conservative.

    For now Mr Anwar sees little downside in his pro-Palestinian, anti-American stance. His government, keen on Western investment, says it is open for business. Yet more stridency may make investors wonder. As it is, Malaysia’s religiously tolerant ethnic minorities are growing more uncomfortable with the increased religiosity that the Gaza war has helped feed.

    The government has drank the neoliberal Kool-Aid of foreign investments, yes, but seemingly these Western companies continue to keep coming despite the geopolitical positions of the country.

    These fake concern for investments acting like the West and particularly the US are their biggest investors when that is not even the case for majority of ASEAN anymore.

    In Indonesia feelings also run high. Yet the rhetoric among political leaders is relatively restrained. True, the government of Joko Widodo has condemned Israel’s imminent offensive on Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold. And, in a recent opinion piece for The Economist that was widely cheered back home, the president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, condemned the West for caring more about Ukrainians’ fate than Palestinians’. Yet that is tame stuff compared with Mr Anwar: unlike Malaysia’s denial of Israel, Mr Prabowo calls for talks and a two-state solution. What factors explain the difference? Indonesia’s ties with Israel are closer than the elites like to let on.

    Malaysian official foreign policy stance is still the two-state solution, although that has been obviously not mentioned in the context of the Zionist Regime’s relentless assault against the Palestinian people.

    They include purchases of Israeli tech and weaponry. Before the war, secret talks looked likely to establish ties between the two countries, starting with reciprocal trade offices. Although Mr Prabowo denies Islamists’ claims that he is chummy with Israel, he is in little danger of being outflanked by hardliners, having absorbed key Muslim political groupings in his coalition. Domestic considerations count.

    This is mostly true and Israeli-Indonesian relations will be mostly off the books by most accounts.

    Any public relations, including normalization, despite Western sources stating otherwise, is near impossible. It’s not as likely as they otherwise try to picture.

    Squeezed between Indonesia and Malaysia, Singapore has close security ties with Israel—two small states encircled by danger. Yet Gaza greatly complicates the relationship, on account of domestic feeling. As Lawrence Wong, the incoming prime minister, told The Economist this week, even though the war in Ukraine carries economic consequences for Singapore, at an emotional level it resonates little.

    encircled by danger

    Yeah the two states are similar in their racism against Muslims, with their founders being White supremacists and having disdain of Islam and indigenous people. Surprisingly, they have close relations, I know.

    By contrast, though Gaza has had negligible economic effect, it has had “a much higher level of resonance”, given the plight of Palestinians. The concern is that communal tensions might surface in ways that strain Singapore’s famed social and religious harmony. That, says the government, is why pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been banned. Christians, who are generally pro-Israel and account for 19% of the population, would demand their own protests, thereby bringing religious discord into the open. The government also fears that Malaysian stridency could cross the bridge that joins the two countries and foster extremism in Singapore.

    communal tensions

    A common phrase echoed by the Singaporean establishment to justify their continual interference and authoritarian measures of silencing dissent.

    The racial undertones are also perfectly clear to those that aren’t blind. Who are the instigators in the picture they are trying to portray? With whom are they trying to gaud into being against?

    This “surrounded by nefarious and scheming Muslims” rhetoric has been the hallmark of Singapore’s post independence psyche because it precisely justifies its own existence.

    It is patently false since Malaysia has a larger Chinese population than Singapore’s total population. It ignores the fact that by declaring independence it put the Chinese in neighbouring Malaysia in jeopardy. This is why I say Singapore’s independence has been selfish. It was done to maintain the rule and capital accumulation of the colonial-era anglophone Singaporean bourgeoisie who would lose many of its privileges under a partnership with Malaysia.

    This post-hoc justification is nothing but that, fluff that ironically, despite what they say, actually inflames racial and communal divisions more.

    Bringing up the 19% Christian population is nothing but a diversionary tactic that ignores the realities of the mass support for Palestine. The Singaporean government simply doesn’t take the step forward because it would anger their monopoly-Capital overlords based in London and New York. It would challenge the long-standing justifications of their existence and bring about a truly progressive and international outlook that they truly despise.

    The necessary response, Mr Wong says, is “to go out [and] explain to our people the positions that Singapore has taken”. That includes condemning Israel’s heavy hand, urging for a ceasefire and a two-state solution and providing aid to beleaguered Palestinians. Those steps are surely right in themselves. But in South-East Asia, when dealing with a distant war, never ignore factors that are close-to-hand.

    Singapore’s position is closer to that of her European parents, which remains unsurprising as they have been colonised economically and spiritually. Singapore continues to contribute to the “accumulation of waste”, as coined by Ali Kadri, contributing to Israeli’s defense industry to defend against a mythical invasion from those dastardly Muslims.

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