New poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus puts Labour on track to take 516 seats, with an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
New poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus puts Labour on track to take 516 seats, with an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
The projected poll places the Tories on just 53 seats - with even the PM losing his seat. This would place the Tories with lowest number of seats since 1832 when party was formed.
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That seems... fantastical. I can't imagine labour taking every single seat in the East Midlands at least.
It's Electoral Calculus, so this definitely isn't happening.
Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a 'super majority' the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can't see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).
It can go the other way too. Conservative voters think its pointless. Even if their candidate has a chsnce, there is no chance ofnformjng government so why bother.
A lot of the seats the conservatives are down to win they'll only win by a very narrow margin. It only takes a little bit of tactical voting to take away a lot of those seats. I think only about 50 of them are definite wins for the conservatives.
Derbyshire Dales hasn't been Labour since 1950. Will be a sight since you can usually just pin a blue rosette to a donkey out there.