New poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus puts Labour on track to take 516 seats, with an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
The projected poll places the Tories on just 53 seats - with even the PM losing his seat. This would place the Tories with lowest number of seats since 1832 when party was formed.
Be careful of the Monkey's Paw - Reform in opposition may mean Reform in power in 10-15 years. The collapse of the Torries is for sure nice to see, but much of that voting block is moving right, not left, and that scares me.
We will see. I suspect a great deal of reform support is just coming from disgruntled conservatives who can't bring themselves to vote left. Another 5 years of reform candidate saying things like "Hitler was right" will probably sap for the great deal of support.
Personally, I think the more the narrative is framed around Labour winning a 'super majority' the opposite might actually be the case. If think Labour are going to win with such a majority will Labour supporters a) still vote and b) would they still vote for Labour - they could afford the vote for another centre-left party as the outcome is not going to change - however the more that people think like that the greater the risk the epic landslide ebbs away. Still can't see Reform making a breakthrough (which incidentally, this poll has Reform on zero seats).
It can go the other way too. Conservative voters think its pointless. Even if their candidate has a chsnce, there is no chance ofnformjng government so why bother.
A lot of the seats the conservatives are down to win they'll only win by a very narrow margin. It only takes a little bit of tactical voting to take away a lot of those seats. I think only about 50 of them are definite wins for the conservatives.
It's bullshit to get conservatives out of the house to vote - "anybody but the commies!" - and keep labour voters sleeping late, and making plans to enjoy life, thinking the win is certain.
Which is why Labour have been pretty much repeatedly telling everyone not to consider it a foregone conclusion. And to go out and vote no matter how much of a done deal it looks.
MRP's are going to be very inaccurate this time around due to the size of the swing. That's why they're producing such massively divergent results between different pollsters.
his closeness with mums net, his refusal to condemn duffield, the fact that wes streeting is a full on terf, the fact they've already committed to implementing the debunked cass review nonsense (despite the tories coming out and saying it was purely a partisan driven narrative), and the fact that i know tories are shit but labour is supposed to be better yet here comes tony blair being trotted out to peddle more transphobia.
oh and the fact that starmer wants to be like thatcher.