9mo ago

Do not under estimate the Tories

This is opinion. So read it as such. But consider it please.

Obviously if you read this based on the title. I assume you oppose the Tories.

But if you are wondering why labour are so keen to manage expectations. There is a reason.

Campaign funding wise the Tories are estimated to be 19m ahead of labour. But honestly at the moment they are not spending a huge amount more.

We know the Tories are skilled at election manipulation. So there is genuine fear that the Tories plan to launch a campaign within the last few days.

I.E. when there is less time and funding to ensure fact checking is effective.

They know Starmer is more publicity aware then Corbyn was. He is able to play it in a way that dose not scare traditional Conservative voters.

They also know thanks to Boris, that the courts are unable to punish them for outright lies during any political campaign. And that Rishi is prepared to lie about and accuse civil servants of lying when challenged.

As huge as polling is against the Tories. All it would take is some dramatic claim against the party or Starmer. To convince Tory traditional voters to bite their tongue and vote Tory. While convincing left wing voters not to vote or to switch to 3rd party in seats where labour are the 1st or 2nd party.

The fact we know they have a huge amount of money unspent. Makes it clear they plan to launch something nearer the end of the election. And the only advantage of leaving it so late. Is it will limit the ability of the party to effectively react. Or fact checkers to be able to prove and distribute evidence of lies.

Please be prepared for this.

137 comments

Everyone, just please go and vote if you are able to. It's very little time out of your day and it's only once every few years. Remember that you do need photo ID this time
If you are interested in tactical voting, something our electoral system unfortunately incentivises, then there is https://stopthetories.vote/ to vote against the Conservatives
- duverger's law is not actually a law at all, but a tautology. it has no actual predictive power, and hand-waves away evidence of instances where it has not turned out to be true.
  
  Nobody, including Duverger, thinks that it's an ironclad thing. That's actually discussed in the link. It does appear to be a pretty accurate predictor of the behaviour of British elections though. The fact that there's even an outside possibility that the Conservatives might not be one of the two biggest parties after this election is noteworthy.
  I'm not sure I understand why you're calling it a tautology. It doesn't seem to fit any of the definitions I know of that word. It doesn't fit the formal logic one since there are clearly imaginable scenarios in which it isn't true (a parliamentary system in which more than two parties consistently emerge as the largest), and it doesn't fit the literary one because it's not a repeat of the same thing twice. Could you explain what you mean here?

It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour. I know splitting the left wing vote isn't tactically smart, but voting for labour isn't even a left wing vote anymore :(
(I'm still pro-tactical voting, I'm just doing it with more frustration than ever before)
- There will literally be Tory trolls/bots pushing this narrative to split the Labour vote. Get the Tories out, then push Labour for PR, hard, to keep Tories out of unjust power.
  
  This is the exact same problem in the United States and even Canada right now. It's leading me to believe it's the inevitable conclusion of a first past the post system.
  
  I used to be a party member but left years ago when it got rough! Maybe getting back into politics more directly is the way to go: changing parties from within!
  
  then push Labour for PR, hard
  What do you think this looks like? Like, what, you're gonna withhold your vote next time, letting a different party take advantage of FTPT, or vote for them anyway, because you're still trying to keep the tories out of power?
  There is absolutely no incentive for them to change the system while in power.
- Well it would be nice if there was anything left of the left in UK labour. At the moment all you got is a transphobic piece of shit that is just slightly left on economic issues.
  Yall really gotta get better to scrub off the stain of the currently accurate description of being TERF island.
  And of course I am painfully selfaware that I am saying this from America where our choices are between two genocidal fascists credibly accused of SA
  Tactical voting ourselves right into death camps is not the strategy you think it is.
  
  Almost everyone hates FPTP, and we know it sucks, but unfortunately, tactical voting is a realistic option for most areas in the UK. I'm personally very likely to vote Green (or lib dem) as I'm in a safe Labour seat, and I won't conscionably vote Labour for a myriad of reasons (including being trans), but it's a bigger priority to get the Tories out than anything else right now.
  More optimistically though: voting is one part of a large variety of things people can do to influence politics. Protests, voting locally, working with local and bigger organisations, writing to MPs, donating to causes we care about, etc. can all help offset the feeling of having to vote for a party you hate slightly-less than the worse one.
  
  And which party with any electoral chance is sound on trans issues? Neither? So now you have a choice: vote on a single issue when you know the party you're voting for has no hope, or take the less bad alternative and try to work from there.
  And of course I am painfully selfaware that I am saying this from America where our choices are between two genocidal fascists credibly accused of SA
  Yeah, right, because Biden and Trump are exactly the same. /s
  Anyway, where's the "credible" accusation of sexual assault against Biden? Laughed out of court for not being credible. And against Trump? A civil finding that he did commit SA, and in any state but New York, it would have been rape.
  This all smells like encouraging voters to stay home because "both sides." And that favours the party with the more fanatical base. Seems to me a more likely way to get death camps than Starmer getting in.
- I’m just doing it with more frustration than ever before
  Pretty sure that represents the labour lead atm. Def folks wanting to vote against tories rather then for labour. Unfortunately it also leave the Tories with an open attack vector. They just need to time the right attack to dramatically split the left vote in Lab seats where they are still 2nd.
- It's just getting more and more difficult to feel okay voting Labour.
  Why? The Tories are barreling towards literal fascism, anything that will stop that is good. Could Labourbe better, absolutely, but it is not worth falling into what America has become just to spite them for being centralist and unambitious.
  
  Some of Labour's recent policies (and stances on Palestine, trans people, etc) are scary and harmful. It's emotionally hard having to vote for a party that has spoken about removing your rights.
  Pragmatically though: I know voting Labour will still shift things towards being better, even if that "better" is way worse than I wanted, and I would never begrudge anyone for voting for them. There's always more we can do in-between elections anyway

Some of the voters are a bit scary too. I keep hearing a clip from LBC where some asks Starmer if he would've been in Corbyn's cabinet.
Starmer kicked Corbyn out. That's years ago. Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.
Finally, who are the 20% that would still vote Tory? Rich business people with no ethics?
- Why are you still trying to link the two people still now.
  Because that is where the Tories are likely spending some money. They keep bringing up the he supported Corbyn. They and the right wing of labour spent in the last election to destroy his reputation. So the Tory party sees it as a cheap attack to push the idea over social media.
  I am a little disappointed that it is not answered with, how Rishi was willing to support a PM candidate with a racist publications in the media and later willing to lie to parliament to prevent their ability to shut down his policies.

Starmer purged the left wing from his party, he can't be surprised when they don't vote for him.
- Agreed. But its not about starmer being good. Its about being less bad then the Tories.
  FPTP is an utter fuck over of an electoral system. That leaves very few places where voting 3rd party or even not voting is not a vote for Tory rule.
  Its unpleasant but a simple fact that evil is quantifiable. When your choice is limited via the voting system. Refusing to vote for the lesser of 2 evils basically means you support goes to the greater.
  
  Agreed. But its not about starmer being good. Its about being less bad then the Tories
  This is the same bullshit people use to justify voting for Biden.
  
  The fight to resist evil is never wholly successful, but always necessary.

Remind your elders that a vote for Tories or Reform will result in them being alone, in a terrible home, or in the street.

Tories are pretty boned, period, whenever they launch their last push - the actual threat are Reform, who will either form a coalition with whoever it takes to gain a majority in this election, or outright win next time after the PLP fundamentally change nothing.
- Tories are pretty boned, period,
  I am old enough to have thought that in the past. The money that backs the Tories will not give up. Given how open the party has been about its extrean right over the last few years.
  Honestly until the 5th July it is very dangerous to think that way. All these predictions are based on 65 to 75% turn out. That is high. The Tories do not need to convince folks to vote Tory. They are better off stopping folks voting labour. At least in seats where a 3rd party is not closer to Tory in polling.
  If they reduce turn out for labour while increasing support for more left of centre parties. They can do to labour what Corbyn did to may. Create a weak minority party where the existing devisions in the PLP prevent the party achieving much.
  
  If you've been voting for 30+ years you should have the experience to recognise how close in policy the current PLP are to the Tories. If you're just talking about the last few elections you were naive and deserved to be surprised that the PLP would rather sabotage a left wing candidate than win an election.
  The money that backs the Tories is not particularly attached to the Tories, and will move (has already been moving) to the PLP and any other sources of power it can find should the Tories lose. It does not have an ideology beyond constant growth, and is happy to pay members of any party for access.
- I mean fingers crossed both Labour and Tories are
  If Lib Dems get opposition it'll hopefully give people the idea they can vote for who they want instead of tactically, so vote share of Reform, Lib Dem, Green and whoever else increases

jokes on them I already sent in my postal vote

Hard agree. They gutted the electoral commission while gerrymandering like crazy. They have an army of right wing boomers brow beating anyone they come across into the ground with their "the two parties are identical in every single way" BS (all claiming to be left wingers while doing so, of course). If labour had been betting on things, using insider knowledge, there would be arrests already. The Met police went to the most secure and videoed place in the country (10 downing street) and lied, telling the whole nation that there was no evidence of the parties they were having during lockdown. Etc etc etc.
The very wealthy people and powerful people they represent won't go quietly, if at all, and they have no morals.

Maybe, or maybe they realise how screwed they are and will just save some of the cash for a future election.
- That is the definition of under estimation. Any theory can be wrong. But when you compare the cost of being prepared. Vs the cost of another 5 years of Tory rule. Its rather daft to ignore the money being there. Especially when you consider previous election manipulations the Tories and their right wing media supporters have managed.

If you're worried about this, the best way to prevent it is to donate to and volunteer with the Labour party. Yes, there's a few places where voting for a different party is the better anti-Tory tactic if that is your priority, BUT:
it's hard to know for sure who the best vote is because the various tactical tools, polls, etc., often don't agree
very nearly everywhere Labour is your best bet anyway

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- yeah when a visually impaired person types on a tablet errors happen. I am now at my larger PC Monitor and planning to fix.
  But remember. Grammar and spelling do not relate to the value of an opinion. They are not related to intelligence but judging folks for it is.
  
  They are not related to intelligence
  O_o
- Was hoping we could leave the pedantic, snarky replies at Reddit.
  It’s the internet, who gives a fuck about someone’s spelling…
  
  Agreed. My grammar is bad. I am always happy when folks politely point out errors. Or ask to clarify things it confuses.
  But I am also visually impaired. So situations like this where every obvious typo is pointed out. I judge as being someone looking to reinforce their own feeling of lacking intelligence.
  Also, when you consider intelligence is a measure of a minds ability to adapt. Failing to interpret based on small errors in spelling etc. Is far from an indication of higher intelligence.
- You’re a potato. Just thought you should know.

137 comments