Progressives and Working-Class Advocates Push Tim Walz for VP

On one hand, I agree he'd be good at it. On the other hand, I'm selfish and want him in MN

Polymarket has him pretty low. And Shapiro doesn't seem like an objectively bad pick, but his response to Gaza protests and student protests don't seem to me like they are going to move the needle in the demographics Harris needs for the WI/ MI/ MN trifecta. Its also not clear to me that "not-picking" Shapiro loses her PA.

That being said, I think he's an Walz does more for the ticket. So if you go Walz, you have to lock in MI and WI, and MN. This seems very doable. If its Shapiro, he has to lock up PA. Like if she goes Shapiro and doesn't lock up PA, thats the ball game, because you are basically sacrificing either MI or WI and you've lost because really need both of those.

GA and NC are both 100% on Kamala, obv, and I'm writing AZ off and assuming VA is fine.

That all being said, I think Kamala's early moves and numbers have been extremely convincing and yet again I find myself without a weekend to dig into the Florida data. It might be that this is all hand wringing over nothing, because the grass-roots energy is real, and thats something that Biden never had and was never going to have. Biden has no base and didn't think he needed one; Kamala recognizes the importance and is doing, frankly, a better than Obama job at building one. Obama had a whole campaign season and super-human charisma, with deener and doufas as opponents. Kamala has had a few weeks and a couple coconut trees, with an actual christian fascist movement opposing her. In-spite of that, she's already at the scale of doing more with less, so in some sense I want to let her cook.

I think that Walz is the smarter pick and you might just have to do so to lock up the undecided vote and not leave that on the table. Otherwise you may have left too much hanging out there convincing yourself you can lock up PA when thats still a real gamble, even with a Shapiro pickup.

Edit: If she goes Walz, I'm pulling out a heloc and betting on her in polymarket. I think she lights this shit off and takes a commanding lead by signalling to the progressives that she's willing to play ball.

Well, now we know who it won't be.

I wish people would stop thinking of a VP like a silent symbol of extension for their office. Walz is rhetorically unmatched out of the potential nominees and he has a clean record with the base. I personally hate the idea that she's considering someone with vastly different views who can provide milquetoast apologia at the podium like she did for Biden. Being from a state clearly isn't an automatic win, just look at the couchcrawler.

How about Tim Gunn, the cohost of “Project Runway?” He could make it work.

Harris'll probably go with the choice that is likely to tip Pennsylvania in the Dems' favor, I suspect.

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