The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there's nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it's not Normandy, there's sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn't have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it'll be Antoniv all over again.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn't clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it's so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It's terrible that they're taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine... A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
There isn't the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I'll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it's not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn't start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don't think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it's generated here.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.
All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That's something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it'll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you're referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
However I would also look at the CCP's 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
China wants TSMC
** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a "if we can't have it, nobody can" strategy
China doesn't want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone
** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion--I would tend to agree--but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
I'm quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I'll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it'll stay.
I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.
That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that's exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they're not really moving any of their "third navy" into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn't be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia's interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let's hope that it's all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
Yeah that's a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you're right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan's government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you'd think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here's the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don't know what they're talking about.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of "strategic ambiguity" where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
Wouldn't the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there's continuity from the former china government to Taiwan's, the people's republic is the newest entity.
No. The ROC has no more of a claim to be Chinas rightful ruler than the PRC does, except the PRC won the mainland.
Sure the KMT led by Sun Yat-sen overthrew the Monarchy, through revolution under a united nationalist front and formed the ROC.
But you can't ignore the decades after, during which a civil war and literally WW2 happened (which stopped the civil war).
During this time the KMT turned radically to the right under the leadership of Chiang Kai-Shek which led to a massive rift within China.
The CPC grew massively during the war and many of the left wing of the KMT sided with them.
The CPC carried out their own revolution against the current KMT and took control of the entire mainland while the KMT held only Taiwan (and carried out a little ethnic cleansing see: white terror).
The CPC then formed the official government of the PRC and was internationally recognized as the ruler of China, while the ROC continued to hold it's islands and claim rightful ruler over the mainland launching multiple attacks, by this time it was over, even the United States who had strongly supported the KMT over the CPC had no choice but to declare the PRC the rightful ruler of China.
So the KMT has a claim to rule all of China in the same sense that a Qing descendant would. They uses to rule sure, but they lost the revolution and their still existing doesn't grant them any power or recognition.
I'm not talking about who's 'rightful ruler' or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That's the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions.
Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don't know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular.
Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People's Republic aren't a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.
The Taiwan government isn't trying to unify the "two Chinas" anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what's left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors.
This is actually more likely to ignite China into re-entegrating Taiwan than if they wanted all of China as it directly goes against the "one China principle" which every country has agreed, China is one and Taiwan is a part of China.
This is saber rattling from war hawks in the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear's own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
Ignoring the racism...yes, China has been very clear they don't wish to use their military for unnecessary reasons, including in the reunification, and they would rather build their country. This is evidenced by their lack of wars, unfortunately, some other countries with long histories of foreign interventionism are knocking at their doorstep.
It's not even true. Winnie the Pooh is factually not banned in China. The Wikipedia sources a BBC article, which also provides no proof of the censorship, and then goes on to state.
"Despite the censorship, there is no general ban on books and toys depicting Winnie-the-Pooh in China; two Winnie-the-Pooh-themed rides still operate in Shanghai Disneyland.[2][3]"
No. Winnie the Pooh isn't banned in China at all, even online. If someone uses Winnie the Pooh as a racist caricature, then yes that specific post will often times be removed.
How you people constantly pretend to not see the racism is beyond me. What's is the connection from xi to Pooh? Because I'm always told "he looks just like him" which is 1: untrue and 2: just racist (chubby and yellow bear with small eyes looks just like Asian man...? Yeah no racism there!!)
Imagine if it was a thing to use King Kong to represent Obama and the people using It's excuse was "it looks just like him!". Would you defend it? It's extremely racist.
Racism against Asians is just widely accepted for some reason.
I don't know if this is what they're talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there's the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it's coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It's the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don't have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
Hmm... how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups...
You know, I'll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you're right, I just don't see a direct line.
TLDR: Squid, again, you're arguing my point. I do not support Xi or the attribution of racism when I call him Pooh Bear. That's offensive....to racists.
I think you might want to read @Antmz22@lemm.ee 's original comment to me that i'm responding to.
Ignoring the racism…yes, China has been very clear they don’t wish to use their military
I'm asking them to clarify the point how Pooh Bear is directly racist against the Han people and not just a derogatory term directed squarely at Xi Jinping.
I am fully aware of China's ethnographic makeup and policies, especially those of a certain Han Dynasty way back when. But here's the article I posted to them and now I post to you.
I honestly have no idea what your point is. I've tried to get you to clarify more than once, but you won't. You seem to be the only one talking about Winnie the Pooh. The rest of us are talking about China's policy with regards to Taiwan.
Maybe get off this Winnie the Pooh thing and discuss what everyone else is discussing.