President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia was technically ready for nuclear war and that if the U.S. sent troops to Ukraine it would be considered a significant escalation of the war.
Putin, speaking just days before a March 15-17 election which is certain to give him another six years in power, said the nuclear war scenario was not "rushing" up and he saw no need for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
"From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready," Putin, 71, told Rossiya-1 television and news agency RIA in response to a question whether the country was really ready for a nuclear war.
Putin said the U.S. understood that if it deployed American troops on Russian territory - or to Ukraine - Russia would treat the move as an intervention.
This issue examines North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. The authors cautiously estimate that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to build between 45 and 55 nuclear weapons; however, it may have only assembled 20 to 30.
However, they can definitely mess up South Korea if they don't mind losing a war. They have a shit-ton of artillery at the border within range of South Korean population centers, a lot of it in caves and bunkers. IIRC estimates are that it'd take over a week for us to destroy that, and in that time, they could cause a lot of damage in South Korea.
North Korea's Heavy Artillery Capabilities Matter More than its Nuclear
Russia can definitely hit the US first and and wreck the US. However, I'm not sold that Russia still retains second-strike
capability against the US -- or at least that the US military believes that it necessarily does or will -- and that's a big change from the Cold War. The US has been putting a lot of resources into first strike enablers.
The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of US Primacy
The major point here is that the US doesn't have missile defenses adequate to destroy launches from Russia's arsenal if Russia launches first...but may well have the ability to destroy all launches from what remains of Russia's arsenal following a US first strike. The reverse is probably not true of Russia -- the US probably does have a second-strike capability against Russia.
And it's a pretty good bet that the US isn't spending on that capability unless it believes it to have a role.
You have the changes to nuclear warheads to give them very precise detonation times that improves their effectiveness against hardened targets (like silos):
Work on conventional hypersonics. Unlike Russia and China, the US hasn't worked on nuclear hypersonics. Nuclear hypersonics are useful if you're worried about an adversary's ballistic missile defense capabilities being able to intercept your ballistic missiles. But the US has shown a lot of interest in putting conventional warheads on hypersonic vehicles. There are a limited number of reasons you'd want a very fast, hard-to-intercept, very-expensive conventional weapon. A first strike against nuclear weapons is one. Any nuclear weapon destroyed by a conventional one doesn't consume one of the attacker's nuclear warheads. They don't have a deterrence or second-strike role, because they aren't useful as a countervalue weapon. But they are helpful in a first strike.
Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS), formerly called Prompt Global Strike (PGS), is a United States military effort to develop a system that can deliver a precision-guided conventional weapon strike anywhere in the world within one hour, in a similar manner to a nuclear ICBM.[1][2] Such a weapon would allow the United States to respond far more swiftly to rapidly emerging threats than is possible with conventional forces. A CPS system could also be useful during a nuclear conflict, potentially replacing the use of nuclear weapons against up to 30% of targets.[3]
A shift to stealthy nuclear-capable aircraft and delivery platforms. These permit for strike without much by way of warning. Note that these have non-first-strike applications as well (though they can certainly enable such a strike).
Meanwhile, Russia has been lugging some oddball delivery systems out of the closet, like a nuclear strategic torpedo. That's useful if Russia is worried about the credibility of their existing second-strike capability in the presence of US anti-ballistic-missile systems.
Point is, if Russia doesn't have a credible second-strike capability against the US, then Russia can only lean on the threat of nuclear weapon use so far as leverage, because if the US really does think that Russia has a high likelihood of engaging in nuclear war, the US is a lot more likely than Russia to launch first, as it becomes possible to successfully perform a disarming strike. The "oh, look, I invaded Estonia, do you want to have a nuclear war over it" gambit, where one tries to convince the other guy that they're more-willing to have a nuclear war than you are, becomes a lot more dangerous for Russia, because the threshold for the US to say "yes" drops quite a bit relative to Russia's threshold.
I'm rather more afraid of a guy with just one than I am a guy with enough to wipe out the entire world.
the guy with just one is more likely to use it.
but, I'm not convinced russia's capability isn't critically degraded. they have warheads, sure, but do they have the incredibly expensive and difficult-to-maintain delivery systems?
That kind of man could exists, ok, but I don't believe an imbecile military man still exists, capable of following such decisions.
Movies did a great job at making such decisions look so dumb
“If you help Ukraine, we might end all life on earth”. Putin knows that nuclear war is unwinnable, and would destroy his empire as well, so if he’s a rational actor, the only use of nuclear weapons is as a prop for bluffing.
Putin is a rational actor. And his actions have been wildly successful so far in achieving his goals.
(Improving the lives of the Russian people is not among those goals)
Fuck around & find out. If US troops are defending Ukraine, it's too late for you Putin. At that point the Ruzzian Federation is at its end, one way or another, regardless of which button you push.
So what? Then he'd do it either way. That doesn't mean we should hiss the white flag and let him do as he pleases. Nuclear deterrence is not supposed to work like a blackmail to launch offensive operations against everyone else.
You don't understand. If we are already rolling thru Eastern Europe, Ruzzia very obviously can't stop us & can't win regardless if it does nuke the USA.
I wonder if the cold war got this boring and obnoxious too or if that's more a symptom of our modern & fast communication. Hearing those weekly nuclear threats is nothing but a clown show at this point.
It's just the cold war was always displayed as this phase of fear and uncertainty. However, I just feel tired and annoyed by the constant babbling. Like, when I constantly read those nuclear threats from Russia I don't shudder and cower, I just roll my eyes and groan.He should either throw the bombs and end civilization or just shut up already. It's not like anyone could do anything about it either, so why even give a fuck about it?
Bombing drills in schools instead of active shooter drills I think was a big difference domestically. There was a little gap there from around the mid 1990s to the early 2000s without either, but I got to see the tail end of one and then the introduction of the other.
As a child of the cold war, yes, it got really tedious except for those moments of existential dread as I laid in bed at night wondering if I would ever wake up or be turned to glowing ash at some point while I slept, and which would be worse.
China repeatedly warned the US in situations where the US was likely to do something. The US went right ahead and did it anyway, and China didn't do anything.
Putin is warning the US about if the US sends troops, a scenario that the US has consistently said -- as recently as the last few weeks -- that it does not intend to do.
White House spokesman John Kirby said France was a 'sovereign nation' which, like any other NATO country, could make its own decision on whether to send troops to Ukraine.
But he added: 'The only U.S. military personnel in Ukraine are associated with the embassy...The president's been clear. There's not going to be U.S. troops on the ground.'
That's probably a pretty safe warning for Putin to issue, because the US is unlikely to do what he's warning about.
"Technically" ready isn't much of a boast about anything. Basically "yeah, you know we have nuclear weapons. Well, so we checked and they do work!" Well guess what Vladdo, the United States, France, the UK are also 'technically ready'. But anyway, this is very different than saying we're politically or strategically ready, so it's not really news. Of course there are those soulless cretins on Russian TV discussing nuking Europe often, but nobody with a brain considers that anything other than an aggressive jerk-off session.
Nuclear weapons are incredibly expensive to maintain. I bet with all the greed and stealing of funds the Russian brass enjoys, all the money earmarked for that has been stolen and spent on big anime titty babushkas and yachts.