"And it is a nightmare. It's a nightmare. And you're going to stop inflation, but we're going to have a crash, and we're going to have a crash like a 1929 crash if she gets in."
"You don’t have to imagine what a Kamala Harris presidency would be, because you’re living through that nightmare right now. And it is a nightmare. It’s a nightmare. And you’re going to stop inflation, but we’re going to have a crash, and we’re going to have a crash like a 1929 crash if she gets in. You saw a gentleman yesterday who got up one of the top analysts in the world, frankly, and, said that if Trump is elected, he predicts and he’s predicting you have a stock market crash like 1929. He also said the only time and the only reason the stock market has gone up, even though it had some bad moments recently. But I think we’ll take, I think we’ll take a substantial lead,” Trump said.
Could someone please hit me in the head with a brick so I can dumb down myself enough to try and understand what he said?
Tbh it's long due for a crash anyway. It's propped up on an unsustainable model as is, and good returns are because a lot of companies are slashing workforce for the sake of bottom line. It's bound to happen regardless.
It's a safe gamble to make, because predicting the wrong market turns get forgotten while predicting the right turns get you heralded a genius. Everyone remembers Michael Lewis for "The Big Short". Nobody remembers him for his blinkered interview slobbering all over SBF right before FTX went bust.
He's an idiot but the line going up before a crash is what happens, right? Like the housing market - my shithole house bought for under $40k in the 90s was allegedly worth $300k in the housing bubble, then it crashed. So now someone is trying to sell it for more than half a million (improved) and, as a layperson that makes me expect a crash.
But not like he could prevent it, WTF? Possibly a real democratic agenda could blunt the effects though, a New Deal again. All the right would do is make it worse.
He's a stopped clock on this one (mostly because it's a really safe bet to make; market crashes, he gloats, market doesn't crash in the near future, everyone forgets he said it).
There is a downturn of some sort coming when the AI bubble bursts (it will, and fairly soon), it's just a question of how severe and how contained it will be.
Sometimes the line goes up and crashes. Sometimes the line goes up and keeps going up. Eventually, it has to hit some kind of limit on economic.
Huge swings are bad. Going up sharply in a short time period often comes with a devastating crash. Capitalism could try to save itself by aiming for small but consistent returns every year. It'd still eventually hit limits of growth, but it wouldn't necessarily Wild E Coyote itself into a wall, either. It's not capable of doing that, though, because the sugar rush of high returns is too good to pass up in the short term. The liberal economists calling for that sort of thing are constantly drowned out, which is why liberal economics ultimately won't save us.
I think it’s time we Lemmings launch TrumpCoin or some similar shitcoin, we can pump and dump on all the MAGAs. We pre-mine like 90% and give it out equally to everyone on here. And then..
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It’s almost like there’s no connection between administrations and the stock market
That's not true. Republican Presidencies very regularly implement large tax cuts at the beginning of their administrations. This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment, which results in speculative bubbles, which tend to resolve as market crashes 4-8 years later.
Reagan, Bush Jr, and Trump all kicked off this cycle. Even Obama is kinda-sorta guilty of it, having slashed taxes as part of the '09 rescue package and inflating a small bubble that popped in 2014. Trump's collapse came on a bit earlier than expected, thanks to COVID, but he'd paved the way to the Crypto Crash (FTX devastated large parts of the off-book financial economy and kicked off an inflationary cycle as big finance guys scrambled to reposition) from day one of his administration.
I'd argue that the current AI bubble is in no small part a function of Biden's over-investment in Big Tech at the expense of manufacturing and transit. But we're still waiting to see how that pans out.
investors know they’ll make shittons of money either way
Plenty of investors ride the boom/bust cycle to their own demise. We just don't talk about them the way we talk about the Gates and Buffets and Bezoi, who diversify thoroughly.
But what presidents direct the national budget to do absolutely matters in the downstream industry. Whether MilTech or Telecom or Construction or Agriculture or Semiconductors or Intercontinental Logistics outpaces the field depends heavily on what direction the President moves on domestic subsidies, government contracts, and international trade deals.
If Bush Sr and Clinton had told their administrations to invest big in Linux, I question whether Microsoft would be a household name. I can tell you for a fact that Exxon adopting Oracle Database Suite was what transformed Larry Ellison from small time software salesman to billionaire. That came on the heels of the Reagan DOJ fucking over Inslaw, Inc (which was on the forefront of relational database tech) and trafficking the PROMIS database engine to partisan insiders like Ellison (former CIA contractor) and Perot (oil industry flak).
We're seeing the modern incarnation of this with guys like Thiel and Musk, who are cleaning up on government contracts in information security, automotive subsidies, and aerospace technology largely by buying out the competition with cheap loans sourced through Federal Reserve friendly private banks.
Presidents (and their downstream cronies) have enormous influence on which businesses and industries succeed and which ones fail.
"This tends to create a flow of new cash for investment."
Not anymore. The last time Republicans tried that trick (Trump's presidency) everyone just spent it all on stock buybacks.
And the AI bubble is being driven by investors desperate for a new get rich quick scheme after crypto collapsed. The companies that were shilling blockchain are all shilling AI now.
Holy shit he's full on insane rambling now. He's losing it folks, he always garbled out word vomit buts it's off the charts. He's done and I'm done with him. Bye dementia don
He's never had to campaign from a position of weakness before. In 2016 he was a troll candidate and never expected to win. In 2020 he was the President. For most of this year he was the clear frontrunner. His appeal depended on him being the "strong man" and now that he's weak he's got nothing.
This quote is completely nonsensical. He's always rambled like an idiot, but this is on another level.
You don’t have to imagine what a Kamala Harris presidency would be, because you’re living through that nightmare right now. And it is a nightmare. It’s a nightmare. And you’re going to stop inflation, but we’re going to have a crash, and we’re going to have a crash like a 1929 crash if she gets in. You saw a gentleman yesterday who got up one of the top analysts in the world, frankly, and, said that if Trump is elected, he predicts and he’s predicting you have a stock market crash like 1929. He also said the only time and the only reason the stock market has gone up, even though it had some bad moments recently. But I think we’ll take, I think we’ll take a substantial lead.
In fact, I had something here. I did have something. I would show you. Wait a minute. I don’t know if you’ve seen this. I used it once. I have it. I do have it. Look at this. Look at this. So this is Tic Tacs, right? I don’t know if I like the company. I’ve never met. I have no idea. They’re so lucky. This is the greatest commercial they ever had. But that’s what happened. This is inflation. This is TicTac. This is inflation. This is what’s happened. I just happened to have somebody give me this one today. I said, I think we’ll put it up as an example of inflation.
Well, I can’t see votes because I turned them off. Everyone should try it, it makes life wonderful.
To answer your question, if you have a group of people following your every word, and you start making predictions about things. Those people might take you seriously, and start pulling their money out of the stock market, which would cause it to drop.
Realistically, even if that happened the chances of a “crash” are pretty minimal because he’s full of shit.
However, trying to manipulate the stock market, successful or not, could be considered illegal.
My comment is really 80% humor, 15% mocking the judicial system, and 5% serious.
Claiming there'll be a stock crash if someone is elected is not stock manipulation.
If he made materially false statements, about a stock itself, deliberately meant to cause the economy to crash, then it would be a different story, but nothing he said was materially false, as he was just saying an elected candidate would be bad for the economy, in his opinion.
It would be stock manipulation if he acted upon insider information to manipulate the stock price, or used proven, materially false statements about the reality of a company/stock to deliberately drive the stock down in price.
We're probably due for a significant drop in the market, but exactly when it'll happen and how big it'll be is anyone's guess. Trump is not the guy you wanna get your financial advice from though.
I heard, and people told me this, that he was the best. They told me all the time, and believe me, these were people, really great people, they said, you need money advice you go to Trump. All time best advice they said. And not just them, but folks from all over, really great Americans I mean down to earth working paycheck to paycheck, they're great and he did that.