Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North
Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Are we at a point where we can start to blame Iran for their slow ass reaction times? I understand the strategic planning and patience and all that. But it just gets frustrating seeing the cities of Iran's "allies" get flattened every few years while the Iranians are chilling in the driving seat of the resistance while not even fucking touching the steering wheel. Hezbollah, Hamas, Ansarallah and Syria keep taking the devastating hits while Iran is egging everyone on. This doesn't feel like an equal relationship anymore like in the days of the Syrian Civil War when Iranians were on the frontlines of Aleppo and Mosul. Israel doesn't stop because Iran isn't protecting their allies anymore, they're using them as a sponge to suck up the hits while Iran is protected and trading with the likes of the UAE. I'm just rambling here, but it gets frustrating seeing Beirut getting pulverised and we can't even get a little drone strike from Iran despite failing to protect Haniyeh in fucking Tehran. Resistance leaders were safer in fucking Qatar than the supposed HQ of the resistance
I am very much a subscriber to the thesis of strategic planning and attrition and waiting for the right moment to strike even if it takes weeks or months, but I do hope that Iran has some more public show of support planned in the coming days or weeks. They don't have to flatten cities or anything like that, but y'know, Yemen of all countries, emerging from a genocide not unlike the one seen in Gaza, has risked its ass more than Iran has in the last couple months. They have similar PR/propaganda issues that Russia has where their weekly proclamations about how Israel/Ukraine is doomed and should surrender, but those statements just make them look kinda silly when it's just the same attrition of a dozen villages named variants of Vohreshitfuckizye that we've seen for months on end. I guess for Putin himself it's always been an issue, saying that THIS is DEFINITELY the last and final straw for REALSIES this time each time an eastern European country joined NATO.
I do wonder if the Resistance had something planned for October 7th this year but didn't expect Israel to actually start shit to this extent this soon. It would be a convenient (if rather obvious) date to co-ordinate a Grand Response™ for the entire Resistance Axis, and a two-month wait for an operation, from early August to early October, is fairly short in retrospect compared to operations in other wars, historical and recent. Like, nobody reads like "It took two months for X country to plan and proceed with Operation Y against Z country..." in a book on a war and goes "Two months! What an agonizingly long period of time!" it just feels like an eternity living through it today, where every hour that goes by, another residential building full of civilians is hit by a bomb equivalent in size to the Beirut Port explosion. That's just a total guess from me though.
The Syrian Civil War, however devastating it has been, is not even close to the scale of the conflict that is about to erupt. This is threatening to turn into a full scale regional war where many more innocents will die with full US backing. Maybe they’re secretly coordinating with Russia or something for a response, but I feel like everyone tries their best to avoid direct confrontation, and choosing to pretend as though Israel will stop on its own once it has tasted enough blood, that cooler heads will somehow prevail.
On the other hand, it is clear that the deterrence has failed and the Zionists have realized that their ethnosupremacist project is doomed once the Iran and Syria eventually obtain the newer Russian air defense systems. It really is a now or never situation for Israel, which is why they are willing to risk it all, because if they don’t fight now, even a losing one, that chance is even slimmer give it another decade.
Eventually they will start bombing Iran and all this trying to walk the fence on international law will be for naught. It already has been.
Reminds me of China rn, trying to please the US and stop a regional war. Except that will never work bc they're dealing with the US.
seems like the ayatollah is suffering from putin-syndrome. drawing red lines and doing jack shit to enforce them.
I understand this sentiment But I am telling myself you and everyone with these doubts are wrong. They will come through. What other choice do they have? The west will never let accept them and the BRICS nations wouldn't ever forget if they betrayed their allies and let isisrael and usa crush the resistance.
Iran has to do its part and we just don't know what it is yet.
Iran wants normalization with Turkey and the gulf states, it is more than possible they are willing to sacrifice Palestine to do it.
Iran wants to sacrifice the chance to sit at the adult table and be the voice of the region in BRICKS in exchange for making good with the abused dogs of the empire? This is just a stupid take. Iran has nothing to gain from making friends with SA Jordan and Turkey.
...America backed out of the last nuclear deal, not Iran. They are desperate to get sanction relief and quite frankly they are fairweather friends to the Russians, they have always wanted to not take a side in the great game pitting anglos against slavs. Iran siding with Russia has been a British red line for almost two centuries, it's why Britain is even more bellicose than america.
The main problem is Israeli nuclear blackmail and the inability for Iran to protect itself from an Israeli air campaign. But yes, this is very disappointing I agree.
Yeah, iran needs to be ready for a total war against these demons. Would be stupid to start it without nukes and reliable delivery system. And good air defences.
I can't fault iran for being careful. If iran is destroyed and the entity still stands what would happen to resistance? Nothing good.
yes I agree. especially since it was just confirmed that Nasrallah did die.
they should blow up the oil rigs in the gulf and have this fucking fight they know is coming. I see no path to deescalation after today, either its war with the demons of empire or Iran gives up the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon. Europe would be left reeling from such an energy attack with Russia already cutting them off, and precious fucking yanks will have a societal meltdown if gas prices go up by $3. Enough warnings, retake the inititive and punish the west for their arrogance. I hope Iran is mobilizing whatever is necessary for full scale war because it is coming now.
The best time to strike the oil rigs was a couple weeks ago to make a fucking point and drive up gas prices. The next best time in a now in the month before the election. Biden is going to try and dump then entire strategic reserve in response and likely order some sort of ban or restrictions on oil and gas exports in response in an attempt to control prices before the election.
They still need to look at striking Israeli economic assets that Israel requires to keep its economy running/are used as debt collateral, and start exploring assassinations in third party countries.
They still need to look at striking Israeli economic assets that Israel requires to keep its economy running/are used as debt collateral, and start exploring assassinations in third party countries.
?
What do you think Iraq and Yemen are doing? They are doing exactly that right now and it's working. Moody's dropped the entity to Baa- Friday this week. Settlers are investing their money outside of the country and industries are leaving in droves. The entity used to be the silicon valley of western Asia and now their tech industry has collapsed.
You want them to carry out assassinations in countries that aren't directly involved in the genocide?
Do you know how stupid that would be? That would only serve to isolate Iran further. They would have more enemies in the end and nothing to show for it.
What do you think Iraq and Yemen are doing?
What Iran is not.
Moody's dropped Israel to Baa1, the top third of the lowest tranche of investment grade debt. There are three more downgrades to junk grade debt, and even then that is going to likely take at least another year because there will be a lot of political pressure on Moody's to not downgrade Israel to junk status, despite arguably already belonging there.
Do you know how stupid that would be? That would only serve to isolate Iran further. They would have more enemies in the end and nothing to show for it.
Furthermore more isolate them from who? Who in your mind is currently sitting on the fence with Iran or is friendly with them that would change their minds if Iran killed an Israeli politician/diplomat/scientist in the UAE or Morocco?
Are we at a point where we can start to blame Iran for their slow ass reaction times?
I'm glad you are the one saying it, because if I or any other westerners had said it, we be accused of "DoOmErIsM" by a bunch of people in this sub who have sounded like Jehovah's Witnesses over the past 2-3 months.
There's a lot of things between sitting on their hands and total war that Iran could have done in response to these attacks, and they sat on their hands instead.
So Iran reacts "appropriately" and now there are air strikes in Iran. 10s of thousands die and the hub of resistance has been destroyed. Now what?
Like it or not, Isntrael wants a regional war with us boots on the ground. They know that a fast all-out war is to their benefit. Which is why patience and biding one's time is the key to winning.
Imagine fucking Putin leveled kyiv, exterminating 10% of the city population and killing zelensky. Maybe you might think that's good and cool and Ukraine is gonna lose for real this time.
Then NATO and her allies bomb the ever living fuck out of Russian border towns. Killing untold amounts of civilians.
Then the Russians who thought Putin was going to protect them realize that no one is gonna save them.
Then those same Russians who thought Putin's "smo" wasn't gonna affect them in any way realize that was a lie and now they're calling for resignation of Putin and his whole cabinet.
Then what? Where's the victory? War isn't a 2 year project, it could take a decade.
What's the point of fighting a battle that compromises your odds of winning the war?
Iran has people too, those are also human lives that could be affected by a regional war. A regional war could risk ending the Iranian revolution and a return to pre-revolution Iran. It's not like the IRI is super popular right now, why risk a coup?
In the end what's necessary is attrition, it's the only way the resistance can fight back. Killing important people only serves to draw countries into a fast-hot war. That's why they keep doing it.
The people criticizing you (and not to single you out, but I mean this in the "royal you" sense) for "DOoMeRIsm" were actually criticizing the armchair general stuff.
You're the user that yelled at an actual Iranian user here that he didn't understand Iran when he criticized the Iranian government, right? Just want to make sure we are all on the same page about who the armchair experts are in this community.
So Iran reacts "appropriately" and now there are air strikes in Iran.
Of course. That's what happened last time, right? Iran launched all those missiles, rockets, and drones, and the Israel started its bombing campaign on Iran?
Who exactly is the doomer here? It certainly sounds like it's you who is advocating for the Resistance to sit around just take everything on the chin.
Iran is already in a regional war. Israel is currently attacking or has attacked Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. It's arming the Azerbaijani military that seeks to cut off their only land route to Russia and Europe. Israel currently thinks it can do whatever it wants and Iran will sit there and take it. NATO has shown it's not even going to mildly punish Israel, and there will be no shift in that policy from either Harris or Trump. China refuses to engage, and Russia can't do much right now even if it wanted to. The comprador Arab states are going to sit around and let the Israelis take out their most feared regional boogeyman while saying just enough to avoid a coup. Netanyahu's approval rating in Israel is as high it has ever been. The choices now are capitulation or showing the West that the Resistance is willing to escalate and not only pay a greater price, but inflict a greater one upon their enemies than they thought they would have to pay. There will be no movement to change course among NATO nations until their citizens begin to feel the pain and their politicians worry about the political cost. The Arab states will not act until their kings worry more about their own heads than Iran. There is only one way to bring that reality to fruition, and it not by sitting on your hands. That also doesn't mean launching an amphibious invasion of the GCC nations or firing everything Iran have at Israel, either. But it does mean engaging in things such as limited strikes on economic/infrastructure targets or assassinations in where places Israelis and other westerners think they are safe, the latter of which is a perfectly proportional and limited response to the assassination of Haniyeh.
That's what happened last time, right? Iran launched all those missiles, rockets, and drones, and the Israel started its bombing campaign on Iran?
Do you know how much they coordinated with the west and Israel do carry out this strike? THAT was a propaganda move. It had no purpose besides satiating Iranian lust for vengeance. It achieved nothing besides that.
You're the user that yelled at an actual Iranian user here that he didn't understand Iran when he criticized the Iranian government, right?
Guess I can't criticize America because red MAGA and blue MAGA know more than me right? By virtue of being American? Every Iranian is locked in with the IRI and knows exactly where their government is at? Iranians elected a guy because they thought he would address the hijab law. Turns out pezeshkian doesn't call those shots, but yeah Iranians have no liberals or delusional in their borders.
Stupid doesn't have a border, nationality, or religion.
Iran is already in a regional war.
Do you know what a regional actually is? A few countries doesn't make a regional war. The whole REGION gets involved. That means Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, in addition to Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.
The choices now are capitulation or showing the West that the Resistance is willing to escalate and not only pay a greater price, but inflict a greater one upon their enemies than they thought they would have to pay.
Fuck you, stop dictating what western Asians need to do for our own liberation.
A regional war would be everyone bombing everyone, THAT would have casualties in the fucking millions. Fucking excuse Iran for not wanting a million dead Iranians in addition to millions dead in the aforementioned countries.
But I don't expect a cracker to get this. It seems you have to actually be Western Asian in order to value the control of the situation.
I have fucking family across Western Asia, I am Western Asian. Fuck me for wanting more of my people to live instead of die in the millions.
I'll take your westoid armchair Doomerism over actual bloodshed of my people any day.
It achieved nothing besides that.
Well I'm glad we are on the same page that Iran's actions have largely been meaningless propaganda moves that have failed to establish any sort of deterrence.
Every Iranian is locked in with the IRI and knows exactly where their government is at?
Oh sorry, I guess it's just you that is locked in with Iran. You are the one true Resistance poster here on hexbear and the only one with inside knowledge of what the Ayatollah thinks and what should happen next. My apologies.
Stupid doesn't have a border, nationality, or religion.
Clearly not, given your "expert posting" on a seemingly every country in the Resistance.
Do you know what a regional actually is?
Do you know what a regional war is? I guess a situation where Israel, with the explicit backing of NATO and implicit backing of the Arab comprador states, is attacking Palestine and Lebanon, where a joint force of Israel, the US, and Kurdish and Sunni terror groups backed by the GCC/Jordan/Turkey/NATO are waging war against the Syrian government, where the UAE, KSA, and NATO are attacking the Houthis, where the NATO/Israel backed Azeris are ethnically cleansing and looking to sever Iran's only land route to Russia, I guess is not a "regional war" because what, its not in the Regional War area of Europe. This must just be a sparkling geographic conflict?
Fuck you, stop dictating what western Asians need to do for our own liberation.
A regional war would be everyone bombing everyone, THAT would have casualties in the fucking millions. Fucking excuse Iran for not wanting a million dead Iranians in addition to millions dead in the aforementioned countries.
No one "dictated" shit to you. I told you what are the options appear to be at this point. If you don't want people to die, and you don't want Iran to respond or escalate, then surrender. Disarm Hamas, disarm Hezbollah, disarm the Houthis, recognize Israel, and capitulate. That will save all the millions of lives.
I have fucking family across Western Asia
Oh, I know, you have been going around for weeks now shit-talking anyone who makes even the most anodyne criticism of how Iran has acted. You are the only true Resistance poster, after all.
Disrespectfully, shut the fuck up. I really do not need a cracker like you posting about how brown people overseas haven't taken the ultimate sacrifice to satiate your blood lust.
Baby, if you really are that mad that Iran isn't kick-starting ww3, you can go to Lebanon or Gaza rn and get you some Zionists like a good foreign legionary.
You really don't need to be asking us to die for a better tomorrow, you can do that yourself ❤️
I even think that's a more valuable use of your time instead of yelling at brown people on the Internet.
I'm not asking Iran to do anything. I stated what is increasingly fact: Iran has not deterred Israel or convinced the West that it needs to bring Israel to heel to avoid a further escalation in this regional war, and further, that its reluctance to engage in any sort of retaliation has only emboldened Israel and the West. And that means they either need to show they are willing to escalate/retaliate, and do so not on the West's terms like they did the last time, or capitulate. My criticism hasn't even been pointed at Hezbollah or Hamas or the Houthis, just Iran.
And, ironically, what I am asking Iran to do, which is nothing, is also what you are currently doing: nothing. You get to sit safe doing the same thing everyone here except for few are doing. And that makes it all the more curious as to why, when I state the simple fact that Iran's current path is not working as they intend, you think I am talking personally to you? You aren't there. Who is "we"? You are just as much of a coward as everyone else, and you aren't going to go be a foreign legion in Lebanon or Gaza more than almost anyone else here. And in your anger and shame and guilt, you run around this mega acting like an asshole, and then get even angrier when the people to whom you are increasingly unjustly an asshole to give it back to you. Do you think you are the only person here who knows anyone in West Asia that is affected by this war? You think you are the only True Resistance poster on here, so that might be the case. And just like you are too much of a coward to go put your life on the line in Lebanon or Palestine, you were too much of a coward to respond to LargePenis in the same way you responded to me, even though we both said functionally the same thing. Because you don't have much to actually say other than to lash out in your guilt and shame and anger, and calling him a cracker wouldn't really work, would it?
Permanently Deleted
You are absolutely right.
I said this a fucking week ago and all of you shouted at me for it.
There's a difference between being disappointed and wanting the resistance to give the allies what they want in the form of a bloody regional war.
Edit: regional war looks like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, oman , and the UAE including the resistance getting bombed/ bombing each other.
Shit can get significantly worse, the goal is to not let that happen.
Comrade, we already have a bloody regional war. /:
You don't understand, it was very hot in Iran, they couldn't be bothered.