The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out
geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.
Right wing nazi parties are gaining traction all around Europe. Social media has given them a platform where they can make small problems look like big problems. Most of the people voting for them only look at 1 agenda item, which is immigration. Besides that they know jack shit about what these parties are about. If you look at the agenda items, it's all tailored for the elite.
Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.
I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of "center" changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.
I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.
CDU/CSU are basically what Republicans have been a couple years ago. They are very much far right, just not facist.
It's not as bad as some polls suggested, but it's pretty fucking bad.
There are few options for coalition-building that don't involve the far-right AfD as the other parties have promised. Meanwhile the far-right and conservative right hold an absolute majority between them, giving them options to approve a lot of heinous shit as they've shown they are willing to do in line with their xenophobic rhetoric.
The upsides are that the Left successfully reinvented their profile and made major gains after being pronounced dead (for the 8th time), the Greens didn't lose as much as the anti-woke anti-education narratives suggested, and the neoliberals are fully out after torpedoing their own government coalition.
Without divine intervention we will get Friedrich Merz as chancellor, the guy who just one month ago was fine with working together with the Neo Nazi party Afd.
So even if a coalition between CDU and Afd isn't happening, our chancellor is kinda Trump light. Mostly in it for himself and his industry buddies, no political experience and not used to doing compromises. And if somebody criticizes him, he cries like a little baby how unfair we are treating him for calling him a fucking fascist sympathizer.
So I expect a shitty time, but it looks like CDU and Afd can't rule alone and the party that is responsible for the whole fiasco, the liberal FDP, got kicked out of the parliament, so at least that is a silver lining.
Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.
They won't be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don't have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.
There is a chance we simply won't have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:
Edit: Results are in, BSW missed getting into parliament by a very slim margin. CDU can form a stable Government with SPD.
Voting for conservatives makes planes fall out of the fucking sky
do they want planes falling out of the fucking sky because that's how they get planes falling out of the fucking sky
Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)
In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Believe me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don't, most of the time.
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
About what was expected.
Good news for Die Linke, bad news for the Greens, rest looks pretty similar to polling over the past week.
The Greens lost the least votes from all the members of the last coalition. SPD and FDP have huge losses.
Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.
Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won't get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don't go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.
I'm sorry my dear Europeans 🙈😥
It's not that bad. There is a "firewall" around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn't possible.
Dude, that "firewall" was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU...
/s ?
No worries ppl. It can only get worse!
Worst possible outcome right now: BSW gets just enough votes to make it into parliament.
This results in an unstable government, since CDU/CSU and the expected partner SPD don't have enough seats, with no one willing to help form the government. New elections are called shortly after.
BSW can destroy parliament by simply existing (well, the voters who put us in this situation with so much AFD), and the only hope is that we throw out all their votes when they don't reach 5%. I don't think it's likely, but it is possible.
EDIT: BSW didn't make it, a boring stable, yet slightly right wing, government for us.