China urges largest nuclear states to negotiate a 'no-first-use' treaty
China urges largest nuclear states to negotiate a 'no-first-use' treaty
"Nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard," Sun said.
China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain a no first use policy. Russia and the United States have the world's biggest nuclear arsenals.
The French will never agree.
Their stance has always been, if France is threatened we will use every weapon in our arsenal.
They do not have end the world stocks of nukes like the US or Russia so their attitude is, "Fuck with us and we will end you."
They do not have end the world stocks
I think you overestimate how many nukes it would take to cause the end of the world. Unless you mean "every piece of land is a radioactive wasteland" end of the world.
If just India and Pakistan were to go to nuclear war with each other, in their small localized region of the world, 27 million people would die from the carnage. The resulting nuclear Autumn would be enough to change agriculture and starve 250 million people worldwide.
Kurzgesagt Video with timestamp: https://youtu.be/LrIRuqr_Ozg?si=Nn6YuO0llyB-B6If&t=380
How so, that is exactly inline with "no first use".
How could "we will use every weapon in our arsenal" possibly be interpreted to mean "no first use"?
Nuclear weapons would not just be used to respond to nuclear threats, if that's your assumption.
I'm all for countries vowing not to use nuclear weapons first, but what is the point of a treaty? If a country does use nuclear weapons first, I think other countries are going to be less concerned about breaking the treaty and more concerned about WW3 and Armageddon. And given that both the US and Russia have shown scant regard for treaties in recent years with major changes to policy, surely the treaty wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on.
If a country does use nuclear weapons first, the other countries aren't going to be concerned with the treaty at all because the first country already broke it.
It takes a lot of people to launch a nuke. While missile operators are trained to act quickly, they are also drilled hard on adherence to policy. A 94% on the test for that policy is a failing grade.
And while I think you're very right to not trust the US or Russia to adhere to treaties, if said treaty requires that training policies and doctrine reflect the no first strike stance, that would mean a whole lot of people would have to be willing to violate that treaty in order to launch first. Heck, there's been incidents during the Cold War where a single person's hesitancy to follow approved launch policy has averted total nuclear war.
I think a treaty and accompanying training and doctrine could create sufficient barriers to make a nuclear first strike far less likely, though, of course, not impossible. But that alone seems like a worthwhile thing to pursue.
Last I remember, USA was the only country to have abused nukes against Japan, and later USA and UK sent nuclear ships to nuke India (Russia helped save us from those white devils). USA also supplied banned clusterbombs to NATO proxy Ukraine, which they used against Russia. Russia neither used nukes nor banned weapons.
That is obviously fake news the libs and MAGAs told me Chyyyyna bad!
While I don't think it bears much on how reasonable it is to suggest nuclear powers agree to never strike first, China's arsenal is uniquely well designed for this kind of strategy. They employ zero static sites, unlike the US and Russia, relying on mobile launchers, subs and bombers. This makes them tactically poised for a retaliatory strike as they don't have as much of the risk of losing their launch sites in a first strike. The US doctrine of preliminary strike in the event a nuclear attack seems likely is designed to protect their ability to launch at all.
While this kind of treaty would be slightly "advantageous" to China, it's only because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy in mind from the get go while Russia and the US would have to adapt and convert their arsenal.
because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy
Yes.
it’s only because they set up their nuclear arsenal with this far more reasonable and less aggressive strategy
I'm sure US and Russia would do the same if not for starting earlier. There are advantages to catching up too.
Folks, very smart people are saying it. I talk to CEOs, generals, every day they tell me. They tell me China is a problem, they say "we've got a problem with China. We've gotta do something about China." Everybody's saying it. That's what they tell me.
Should have thrown in a "I'm a very stable genius" somewhere.
I fail to see the point of such a treaty. This planet isn't surviving a nuclear war long enough to hold anyone accountable over it anyway.
I can tell if China is worried about current Russia or a future US under Trump.
This is directed to the US, UK, France, and Pakistan.
China and india already have no-first-use policies. Russia inherited one from the USSR, which was dissolved when the west coup'd them and immiserated their people. Russia's lack of a no-first-use policy is directed at the guys who represent an existential threat to them.
This would be a mixed bag because it could open the door on more conventional wars since it would left the threat of MAD.
I think this applies more to our typical bullying. Against another nuclear state, this treaty is meaningless.
this is largely symbolic, it doesnt change anything
Agreements? Concentions? Those never get broken.
Geneva anyone?
China and India are the only responsible players on the world stage and it shows.
Cojncidentally, they're also the two nuclear-armed countries who have been involved in the fewest conflicts, and who's conflicts have been resolved the most quickly.
Also, they have been fighting each other without guns.
I do not think that sounds as bad as you sound.