According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.
I keep seeing this, and yet I have not ever had anyone explain to me why the fuck Russia would revive the conflict on a future date unless the west pulled some shit again. It's not as if the end of the conflict won't allow the west to rearm and prepare for war again. Why will time only benefit Russia here?
“Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”
Is this ... holy shit. The war situation has gotten so bad, they are now toning down the Orientalism.
The bigger question here is why they think Russia would agree to any sort of a freeze when they're clearly winning. Russia doesn't need time to build up and regroup, the west does.
I keep seeing this, and yet I have not ever had anyone explain to me why the fuck Russia would revive the conflict on a future date unless the west pulled some shit again.
Because their basic understanding of the war is that Russians are bloodthirsty subhumans that started the war entirely unprovoked because they just couldn't resist invading a country for fun/they need more land (you know, as the largest country in the world). It is a pretty commonly cited refrain that as soon as this war is over, Russia is going to invade some other european country.
They have absolutely zero understanding of why the war is happening to begin with. So they just assume Russia loves war just for the sake of it.
could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.
The last time there was a negotiated agreement, Russia retreated from Kiev and a bunch of land as a show of good will. Then Ukraine went back on the signed peace deal and decided to continue the war at the behest of its masters.
The time before that, Merkel admitted that it was only done so Ukraine could buy time so the West could arm it for this war. Which by the way, Ukraine started by intensifying its bombardments of civilian centers in Donetsk and Luhansk, after every Russian warning, declaring its willingness to acquire nuclear weapons, and courting NATO.
They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have
Why would they expect anything different? What made them think that the West is a reliable ally? Unfortunately after the collapse of the USSR, through a mixture of propaganda and cynicism, there's a lot of non-Western people who romanticize the West as "better than us", in a twisted global form of Stockholm Syndrome.
The last time there was a negotiated agreement, Russia retreated from Kiev and a bunch of land as a show of good will. Then Ukraine went back on the signed peace deal and decided to continue the war at the behest of its masters.
I have never heard about this. Can you explain more (and provide some sources too)? Thanks a lot.
Even though the West denies it, Russia has produced the signed draft agreement with genuine Ukrainian signatures.
Explanation:
The SMO began on February 24. Russia was not aiming to conquer territory but to force Ukraine to accept neutrality, recognize Crimea as Russian and allow autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk. They occupied positions in the 2 regions, took Kherson (outside Crimea) and surrounded major cities like Mariupol and Kharkhov. They also drove straight for Kiev with little regard for securing territory. This led to logistical issues for Russian forces, but despite them, they were clearly beating back the Ukrainian army (which was at its peak).
Within a few days, Russia invited Ukraine to peace talks. They first occured in Belarus. Russia made their demands as mentioned and Ukraine demanded that Russia retreats from Ukraine, including Crimea and publicly denied peace negotiations.
To cover their asses for denying peace in a war they were clearly losing, Ukraine started accusing Russia of warcrimes, specifically that it was kidnapping children and massacring civilians like in Bucha (claims which the Western press was eager to support). The UN did an investigation and preliminary results show there was no case for warcrimes. The ICC (which is different to the ICJ) proclaimed Ukrainian claims were right and that was that.
Meanwhile, the Russians continued advancing. By March 6, Russian forces secured the Kiev airport and established lines of logistical supply for the forces around Kiev. This rattled Zelensky and negotiations resumed in Turkey.
Weird things started happening then like rumours about Ukrainian officials being interrogated by Ukrainian intelligence services (infiltrated and controlled by fascists) and finally one of the negotiators being shot dead and then accused of being a spy. This was accompanied by an intense PR campaign by Right Sector and other Ukrainian fascists to stop negotiations and return to the fight.
Despite this, the Ukrainian and Russian foreign minister met on March 10 and some progress was made. By March 16 leaks from both sides were saying that peace was close. In the meantime, Russian forces retreated from around Kiev, and also completely left the Sumy region. For the first time since the SMO started, no further advances were being made. And Ukraine did not claim this as a victory on the battlefield (not through official channels anyway), indicating this was an agreement reached during negotiations.
Boris Johnson then spoke to the G7 and said that "Ukraine needs to be supported so it is not forced to accept a Russian peace deal".
He then flew to Kiev and met with Zelensky, where as Ukrainian retired officials are telling us now, he convinced Zelensky to walk away from negotiations and he promised the West would "support Ukraine all the way".
So despite peace being so close, Ukraine cancelled the deal by the end of March, and walked away from negotiations. Which is why Ukraine seems so demanding when it comes to aid being provided by the West. Because it was promised to them. Also why Zelensky seems so arrogant when invited to NATO conferences. Because he understood that by declining Russian peace, Ukraine would be protected by NATO. Meanwhile, this is also the time when the fighting started getting more intense, and for the first time in the SMO, the Russian army started advancing with an actual formed frontline.
Last June, when Putin met with African leaders he published the draft of the peace deal which apparently was signed by the Ukrainian foreign minister and other negotiators. . The peace deal said that Russia would retreat from all territory taken after February 23, Ukraine would commit to having further talks regarding Crimea and autonomy of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine would enshrine neutrality in its constitution. Russia would provide some aid for rebuilding areas damaged by war. This is the most generous peace deal Ukraine could ever hope for. And they walked away from it at the behest of the West, which spent 8 years arming Ukraine and financing the fascists taking over, so this war could happen.
Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25.
I’m shocked that he lowered it to 25 instead of 0. Doesn’t he want to win the war?
I am legitimately surprised it isn't in the 16-18 range at this point yet. Though I would not be surprised if some teenagers have been conscripted anyway.
US House is indicating they'll pass the 60 billion of funding Biden wants but part of it will be as a loan (which apparently makes it more appealing to Republican hogs despite the fact they already own the country and if it loses big enough they'll never collect) which I'm sure they'll accept.
And lately they're talking in even more deranged tones of preventing a Trump presidency from disrupting the war funding by upping that 60 billion to a 100 billion commitment which is just very funny when these people claim to respect democracy except when it could get in the way of their war wants. (Also in light of the fact of how corrupt Ukraine is and how much of that would be stolen if delivered up front though they might be smart enough to put it in a fund that dispenses it over time)
The only thing that is going to bring the Ukrainians to the negotiating table and to act reasonably towards Russia is the end of funding. And until that happens Russia is going to have to deal with a significant troop deployment that costs money and terror attacks.
The West really thought they did a thing here, didn't they? Hundreds of billions down the drain, destabilizing your own countries and finally finding out how much your NATO equipment is worth in actual combat.
Dont forget about millions of Slavs killed, wounded, displaced and impoverished, west always seem to have incredible hardon for that. Also what is effectively the next version of Iron Curtain (though not placed like they would like).