my wild guess about "everyone (60% and +) to die" :
0% chances from Iran & middle east wars
10% chances from russ & NATO wars
50% chances from climate change
... say, in the next 30 years.
Also, 90% chances i am missing something important here.
If I were the Iranian leadership I'd want to develop a nuclear arsenal yesterday. It's the only way to really deter Israeli or American aggression. As an American myself I'd appreciate the resulting reduction in the likelihood of our going to war against Iran.
If Iran uses a nuclear device, the whole world will use conventional weaponry to flatten the entire country, just to make an example of them. None of the serious players actually want nuclear war.
It's the result of growing up under 2 very different impending calamities. Nuclear annihilation was a constant but invisible threat that promised to wipe the world clean before you would even have time to comprehend what was happening, so the mentality was to live in the moment and pretend it didn't exist, because it all might not tomorrow. While climate change is a constant but blatantly visible threat that clearly gets worse and worse as time goes on, giving a real sense of desperate urgency to do something now.
So you have a dissonance of the older generations who shrug their shoulders at the horrors of the news and pretend that nothing's happening because it doesn't immediately affect them, and the younger generations who are freaking out about everything all at the same time because their whole lives they've basically been on the train tracks watching the train come barreling towards them and begging the older folks to just drive the car off the tracks.
Iran might have 1 or 2 but we have hundreds iran doesn't want us to get MAD also known as Mutual assured destruction there desert country would be irrataded for the next 100 years where as NORAD would of stopped there missile over flying over the Pacific or Atlantic ocean
I pictured a mentally deficient trucker, ala Curt Russell in Big Trouble in Little China, but fatter and uncool screaming into his phone while Real American by Rick Derringer plays in the background.
The point of building nukes isn't really to launch a nuke at someone, it's to make others decide that attacking you is too risky. Missile defense isn't perfect, so even if it probably would stop them, there's still a risk one gets through, that someone would have to take into consideration before launching an attack. It's even more a threat against Isreal, since they have less time to intercept, and even one missile getting through would destroy a comparatively larger fraction of the country, being that it's fairly small.