[Beau of the Fifth Column] Let's talk about Putin's promise of peace in Ukraine....
[Beau of the Fifth Column] Let's talk about Putin's promise of peace in Ukraine....
TLDR: There was a recent shakeup of the Russian top brass and an economist was put in a top job. He thinks the economist has told Putin that this can not be sustained given Russia's capability and Western promised support. Putin might actually be listening and why he wants to settle on current control.
I can maybe buy that the Kremlin does want a ceasefire, but I'm not sure I agree with Beau's reasoning for that.
His argument, if you haven't watched the video, is that Putin appointed an economist to head the Ministry of Defense, they told him that the war wasn't economically sustainable, so he's seeking terms.
I'm pretty skeptical that this is the first time someone has told Putin that the conflict is not sustainable.
First, it doesn't require an economist to be directly reporting to Putin for reports on economic implications to make it up.
Second, Putin has other advisors who are also coming from the economic side of things, like Elvira Nabiullina. This isn't the first time that he's gonna have direct exposure to someone who is arguing an economic case.
Third, I am confident that at some point in the prior two-and-a-half years, Putin started having people figure out what the constraints on the war effort were. I don't believe that in May 2024, he suddenly got around to this.
Fourth, from what I've read, the likely limitations are on hard power (exhaustion of supplies of important military equipment, like stored tanks). They aren't economic. The economic situation makes things worse for Russia, but it doesn't make continuing the war untenable. Okay, technically Beau just said "economists are good at forecasting", and maybe that could be forecasting materiel exhaustion, but I don't believe that either Shoigu or this guy are personally doing their own forecasts. They're both going to have people under them do forecasts. And I don't believe that the MoD under Shoigu is unable to get a forecast out about materiel exhaustion.
Fifth, an argument I've seen in the past is that an economist was appointed specifically because this guy would be in a good position to improve Russia's war economy, for a long-run effort. I am not at all sure that that is an incorrect take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Belousov
Belousov was Putin's only economic adviser who supported the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. He believed Russia was "encircled by enemies".
Jimmy Rushton, a Kyiv-based security analyst, said on X, formerly Twitter, that that Shoigu's replacement with Belousov signals that Putin believes he will win "via outproducing (and outlasting) Ukraine" and is "preparing for many more years of war". Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that Putin sees the war in Ukraine as a war of attrition and Belousov is supposed to help transform Russia's heavily militarised economy into a war economy. As of 2024, military spending accounts for about 30% of Russia's budget.
Keep in mind that a ceasefire is not a peace or even an armistice. There have been multiple ceasefires in the conflict in the past. A ceasefire, even if a legitimate offer, does not mean that the aim of the other side is to end the conflict.
Good assessment. The only water I'd throw on your fire is that authoritarians are incredibly reactive to personalities and presentations.
It's possible new faces literally changed Putin's mind on things he had already heard, simply because the message was coming from someone new.
Good water thrown. I only want to add the assesment of authoritarians is too rigid.
They are people, and therefore, just like all of us are fallible and susceptible to great personalities and presentations, like you stated.
The world shouldn't treat these people as somehow different and apart from the rest of us. It gives them a mystique they don't deserve. The same can often be said for the famous or wealthy.
Beau covered a lot of that. This isn't the only economist that has said it, but it might be one that Putin is finally listening to. And he's not just a random economist, apparently forecasting is his whole thing, he's really good at it, and I get the impression it's far more detailed than general economy. Which is probably why he specifically got the job and is being listened to.
apparently forecasting is his whole thing
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." — Ezra Solomon, professor of finance, Stanford University
One of the suspicions of the invasion is that he wanted to secure the newly found natural gas deposits in the Donbas region so that Ukraine couldnt stand on its own and definitely couldnt undercut Russian natural gas to Europe.
Also having a former Soviet state become an actual functioning democracy without the massive Grift would show Russians there is a path to life without cleptocrats.
The tries between the countries run pretty deep so there would be no hiding it.
After all the quality issues at Boeing, they put a person with a Finance background in charge of the commercial division. This is about the same.
I saw Anders Puck Nielsens YouTube video last night about the same topic. Anders is imho always spot on, and I think it's worth a watch: https://youtu.be/OZ-R1WVGwQg?si=OvzuDU8Q-z1cpE55
Anders is on Mastodon, not sure how to follow him from here though
Invidious link: