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What happened?
Far right parties gaining significant popularity especially in France and Germany. It's not great for the neo-liberal centre who created and perpetuated the economic downturn we're all in and indicates a failure of the left to present a coherent alternative. There's a lot to unpack about it. France has already dissolved their parliament and triggered an election because of these results.
Netherlands also going great. At least the xenophobes hate Europe so much they don't bother showing up for European elections to simply say they want less foreigners.
Netherlands actually didn't change much. PVV got +5, but FvD (a worse PVV) lost 4. And the VVD (where Wilders came from originally) also lost 1, so it kinda cancels out. Same goes for the left parties which went from 9 to 8, but that seat went to a progressive center party.
Overall very little has shifted here. And it seems at the European level the same coalition will continue too.
But I still haven't seen a definitive explanation of why so many voters are switching to far right parties, and how exactly they can be won back*. Because the far right parties sure aren't going to solve their problems (although they do name them), and the center assume they just need to do more of the same but better, and that hasn't and won't work either.
It makes me wonder whether a) the whole system of parliamentary democracy has reached its limit and cannot logistically please its voters any more than now, or whether b) voters just have too high expectations/are too selfish.
*I imagine that some voters that have been sucked too deep down the propaganda hole, like those of Trump or Orbán, cannot be won back.
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That's part of it another is that the right offers some easy answers to some very complex questions. They aren't the right answers but they're easier to wrap your head around. As prosperity drops, the time, effort and resources the average person can commit to understanding the complex problems facing their country also drop. This means the easy answers take root easier, and spread further and faster because the less informed are less resilient to them.
We lefties have some easy answers and they feel quite right, too. Eat the rich. But I guess it's not that famous in the less educated social stratum - "What if I am one of the rich, after I won the lottery?"
"Eat the Rich" aka attack the middle class while the elite laugh in your face.
See, as I said, hard to understand for the less educated.
That's cute you think you're a smart boy
I think for many people who feel desperate, everything starts to look like a zero-sum game.
This is a good observation
It often happens when a society's prosperity decays
It will be interesting to see whether the far right rises in a country like Denmark, which afaik still has the definition of a well functioning social safety net.
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That's true, and propaganda is probably enough to make people feel desparate
The simple reason is that a lot of people feel that the status quo just isn't working for them and hasn't been for a number of years. So they've ended up gradually voting for more and more extremes as the years have gone by, to express their distaste.
Hopefully these results are a wake-up call for EU nations, so they can try and get these voters back to the more moderate parties. I suspect not though.
Results of bad management of 2015 immigration crisis, and populist manipulation during the COVID lockdown powered by russian propaganda and American talking points.
In short: situation crazy, people mad, current governments no handle good, people more mad, bad people take advantage
Does anyone remember before the 2015 crisis? That could plausably have been the trigger, at least in Europe. I don't even know if the rise of social media needs to be roped in to this.
In my country before 2015 the extremists were using just fringe local talking points like the Hungarian/rroma minority and accusing everyone of corruption.
Here's my hot take: people aren't switching to far right parties all that much. In a moderately healthy democracy, up to 30% of voters are often protest voters. They are unsatisfied with the current state of affairs and vote for whoever promises the largest upset of the status quo that they could see as potentially benefitting them.
Often the media then likes to massively overinflate their popularity, artificially enhancing their electoral success. But it's also often short-lived. If you look at Dutch elections, you'll find that a group of voters went for LPF, then PVV, then FvD and then PVV again. Each time it's broadly talked about as the "rise of X party" but almost every time nothing truly materializes.
In the US you see a hardcore group of approx. 30% of voters vote for Trump religiously. Then there's a smaller group of moderate Republicans that dislike the Democrats enough to end up voting for Trump too. They don't like Trump but he's "ok enough, and better than Obama/Clinton/Biden/Sanders etc...".
In France, Le Pen got around 30% of the vote. She didn't perform dissimilarly to the last presidential election results, it was more noticeable that the other parties got much smaller than they were. But whether or not Le Pen can actually take the crown remains to be seen.
This is an interesting observation
What happened the last time right wing populism swept across Europe?
Nothing bad I hope.
I've seen one take that (maybe over-) simplifies to that there's a wave of anti-establishmentalism, and while the best party to embody that under FPTP (e.g. UK, USA) is the other big party, many European parliamentary systems have proportional voting systems that allow smaller alternative parties. And the alt right sells a load of coherent, anti-establishmentalist talking points.
Dutch examples: PVV? The problem is Islamic immigrants. FvD? The problem is the Deep StateTM!
And although a lot of problems that we are experiencing (skyrocketing housing prices & cost of living, worsening labour conditions, millennials and gen Z/Alpha being worse off than their parents) are the result of the right, the left does not have a thing to sell as easily as the alt right has been able to.
I also saw the turnout polls for the Dutch vote. It was interesting to see that the portion of people who voted progressive in the last national elections and didn't show up for the EU elections is smaller than the portion that voted fascist/populist.
Eh, I wouldn't say its a failure of "the left." The problem is that American style neoliberalism has become the only game in town and any minor deviation is seen as dangerous extremism. Its easier to imagine the end of the world than it is to imagine the end of capitalism.
Neo classical economics is simply "economics" or even worse "just basic economics" now. Every major media outlet going has been captured or compromised. Social media is bought and paid for by the same interests too. I mean, there's some pockets of resistance here and there but the ultra wealthy control all the narratives.
To me, blaming "the left" for that and calling their resistancea failure is just bizarre. Its not like the narrative has changed or is remotely hard to comprehend. Its just that people like being told what they want to hear; that they were right all along.
They clearly prefer to be told its all those damn foreigners faults and that looking up is a waste of time.
I totally agree that neoliberal economics are essentially what we understand to be economics now. To be clear, I'm not blaming the left, I think it's a case of they have a more difficult message to convey. To explain the problems that neoliberal economics has and to propose a solution to them is a really hard task compared with "it's the foreigners at fault". It's a much clearer, more concise and seemingly solvable problem compared with "we need to overhaul the global economy".
Sadly, I think you hit the nail right on the head there. People don't want complicated answers to complicated questions. As you eluded to, blaming the out-group has worked since groups existed.
Through my own fault, I think I read too deeply into the word failure lol.
American style neoliberalism has become the only game in town and any minor deviation is seen as dangerous extremism. Its easier to imagine the end of the world than it is to imagine the end of capitalism.
I'm just gonna leave this here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalist_Realism
Its easier to imagine the end of the world than it is to imagine the end of capitalism.
Damn... it's wild how true this is
If you like that, I can't recommend "capitalist realism: is there no alternative?" enough. It where I stole it from, without a hint of shame.
Yes, yes.... On est dans la merde !
It’s not great for the neo-liberal centre
Neoliberals love fascism... why wouldn't this be great for them?
It’s not great for the neo-liberal centre who created and perpetuated the economic downturn we’re all in and indicates a failure of the left to present a coherent alternative
Without intending to disagree with this statement, how is voting far-right a better proposition regarding the economy?
So I didn't make a statement about that. I'm making a statement about what these results might tell us, admittedly in a very simplistic way.
but what "coherent alternative" are the far right parties presenting? I felt that was the part of your sentence that implied some logic in voting far right
I said in another comment but basically the left have a tougher message to sell than the right. The right says that the system works but it's the foreigners/benefit thieves/refugees stealing your money/house/jobs. That is inherently quite easy to understand without much thought or critical thinking. The left on the other hand have to tell you all about Thatcher, Reagan and neoliberalism before we even get to the point of solutions which are usually incredibly radical like changing the fundamental economic model we've all been operating under since the 80s. Inherent in that is a fear that the left's solutions will take assets and wealth away from people. While the right promises that your assets, wealth and property rights are sacred and that it's the "other" that will have their assets, wealth and rights taken away. Again, very easy-to-understand messaging for the right versus the left.
I don't know yet but I saw "Polexit" on the Polish ballot and didn't know if I should laugh or fucking cry
Oh it would not be Polexit. There are way better names available than that. Polout, for example.
Poles out for Harambe
Poleave
Polaway
Exit Poles.
That one. That's the one.
Agreed, polished to perfection.
Polend
That would require more creativity than the people behind "polexit" have
Polaaaand it's gone.
The slogan could be:
Now, the only legal contraceptive.
Love how people look at GB, see their much bigger economy, see the results of Brexit and be like: Bro, I think we would do better.
Hey maybe we can have a clusterfuck of our very own!
You get a clusterfuck!
You get a clusterfuck!
EVERYONE GETS A CLUSTERFUCK!!!!!
Democracy