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Lmao the reason things like YouTube and streaming killed broadcast TV in the first place was because of the lack of advertising those platforms used to have.
They're really trying to kill themselves with this
Hell, one of the appeals of cable TV when it first came out was that there weren't any commercials. It's a never-ending cycle.
Capitalist cycle:
Nature or the people make something good
Capitalism sees a chance to make profit and hollows out the good thing until it is a shell of its former self
They move on to the next thing.
They probably aren't going to kill themselves. They've cornered a big enough section of the market that they can count on a large portion of their userbase staying. If this change increases their revenue by 45% and reduces their userbase by 30% its still a net gain. The longterm issue here is losing the creators that make really high quality content. But most of their revenue comes from people like Mr. Beast and random beauty vlogger and angry gamer man. So idk.
If this change increases their revenue by 45% and reduces their userbase by 30% its still a net gain.
Please be the thing that helps PeerTube get off the ground. Video hosting is too damn expensive, so its probably wishful thinking that this could be like the event that gave us thousands of new libs to bully.
All these proxy frontends should implement federation and caching, then have a setting where admins can set the instance to cache the last X gigs of videos they proxied. Better yet if Lemmy and Mastodon were to also cache posted videos too.
The problem with a 45% increase is that people who actually use adblockers is only around 10-20% of their userbase, but more intrusive ads will probably affect the other 80-90% of people and make at least some of those people use youtube far less as well. It also primes the market for a youtube competitor to come along and offer the same service, but with far less intrusive ads. I don't believe any company can be "too big to fail." I don't think this will be some massive overnight thing though, but it might start a chain reaction that leads to people using something else in the future. (Like if something like TikTok started letting people make long form content in response to this, it could cause a lot of people to move to their platform from youtube)
TikTok is looking at opening up hour long vids
I mean that's true for now, but so did TV at one point.
What market can emerge to take a bite out of youtube? All I can think of are tik tok, video games, and books. Youtube makes plenty of money off of podcasts. I doubt nebula or similar will grow enough to take a sizable portion of youtube's userbase. Alternate hosting sites might be neat but I don't think enough people are tech literate/savy/informed enough for that or are simply too lazy to seek out stuff like that.
TikTok came out of nowhere.
Why can't something else?
I subscribed to nebula so I could watch the jet lag series early and all the other videos on there are literally just the liberal war analysis videos. so nebula has that market covered but any other genre of video will have to rely on youtube. also nebula doesn't have comments which may be a dealbreaker for many.
Every western alternative to YT failed so far and things like p2p are obviously not anywhere near viable.
If there is ever a non-western alternative like Tiktok, well its obvious it wont be allowed. So realy there is very little reason to be optimistic about this.
If YT dies it will be because people moved on to some other entertainment form, maybe VR will be the big thing in 2060 and people will laugh at us idiots wasting time watching "non interactive media" just like we laugh at newspapers and radio. Maybe the "AI" nonsense will actualy deliver something remotely useful for making videos on-demand or something, though that is just cringe and silly it may happen...
So unless that is where we're heading I think sadly YT will be here to stay for at least a another 10-20 years.
To be honest in the medium-long term I'd bet on climate change making energy prohibitive and therefore killing most of current social media server capacity than anything else.
peertube is viable
Not at youtube's scale, perhaps, but its usable