1d ago

Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5%

www.dw.com Risk of large asteroid striking Earth falls to 1.5% – DW – 02/20/2025

NASA cuts calculations of asteroid large enough to wipe out a whole city striking Earth in half. The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

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The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.
I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.
- I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.
  They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.
We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.
- If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.
- Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires
- As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.
  
  Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone
  
  There would be enough warning to get people out of the city.
  
  If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.
  
  Washington D.C. I hope.

So you're telling me there's still a chance

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
- Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

What do we need to get this to %100?
- It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!
  
  I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!

So you're tell me there's a chance?
- Relevant username
  
  I'm a Powerball man...
  Those are great odds!
- Sure hope so!

There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/
If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
- Magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
- As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit
- https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/balatrogame/images/5/57/Tarot_The_Wheel_of_Fortune.png/revision/latest?cb=20230925220831
  I would sleep like a baby if it had these odds, lol.
- As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
  Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away
- Don’t look up.
  
  I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032
  I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!
- I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope
  
  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ym30v356po
  
  Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.
  
  I haven't seen that. That's a new one. Lets go!
- There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.

Damn

Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid
- imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though
  
  Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)
- Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess. https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

Well, that's disappointing..

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

Please
- 🙏🙏🙏

Boourns!

Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.

Dontgivemehope.meme

Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!
- Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.

Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy

I feel like hitting the moon could fuck us up even worse long term, with effects on the ocean?
- Much much much much larger objects have hit the moon in the past
- Well we'd lose the tides, which would devastate ocean life. We'd lose moonlight, which would devastate nocturnal animals. The axial tilt would change, so seasons would become more even, devastating plants that rely on seasonal cycles, or become more extreme, devastating everything.
  The book Seveneves explores this scenario, but is mostly about how humanity moves to space to survive.
  
  The moon would shrug that rock off without noticing. Any changes in measurements (mass, velocity, etc.) would be minuscule.
  
  Could it even completely obliterate the moon? Just not being tidally locked would be awful, but completely changing its trajectory/orbit and probably fuck up our atmosphere with debris seems more likely
  
  Here's the upside: new species will evolve that can take better advantage of the new environment.

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