I agree with every point you make other than the battery swap one. I really don't think there's a future in it. It's a cool feature but it just seems so overly complicated for basically only a very small convenience. A convenience that only exists if you're used to ICE cars. After a while people are not going to care because they will be so used to electric vehicles they'll just get used to charging them up every now and then whenever they stop anywhere, so it'll be a non-issue.
Battery swaps are only really useful if your battery is completely dead. Most people aren't going to completely drain the battery under normal operation. Your average commute is less than an 60 mile round trip, if you charge up every night you can essentially pretend you have an infinite battery.
People are going to look around and ask, why am I paying so much money to get a battery swap capable vehicle, when I only use the feature maybe once or twice a year on a road trip?
I feel like we've had this discussion elsewhere... :-) I apologize for the long reply, if so.
Here's why I think battery swap makes sense:
For the vast majority of people, cars are a means to an end. Like the saying: people don't want a drill, they want a hole. They want to get from point A to B, get something done, then come back and get on with their life.
Charging for 10-40 minutes at a time adds friction to the A to B and back process. People are used to stopping for gas, gritting their teeth at how expensive it is, filling up, then moving on and not giving it another thought.
Charging while shopping/parking, etc. is fine, except when the spots are all taken. As more people get EVs, this will happen more often. There's no point having an infinite battery if you can't find an open charger when you're running into a store.
L2 charging at home is convenient. They should keep letting people do that. But it adds $500-$2K to the cost of switching from ICE to EV. It's also not easily available to people in rental apartments and high-rise condos. Some landlords are adding L2 chargers, but now you have to deal with charger congestion. Same with L2 chargers at offices, grocery stores, and parking lots.
Not having L2 at home means L1 (take forever), public L2 (see above), or having to pop into L3 chargers every few days (broken units, congested, expensive, affects life of battery).
L2 charging off home solar and battery is the BEST (zero blackouts, zero monthly power bills 🎉, and feeling superior to mere mortals). But now we've added $5-$30K to the switching cost. Definitely a luxury. Also, Fuck You Todd, you supercilious prick.
J1772, CHAdeMO, CCS1, CCS2, GB/T, NACS. Just shoot me now. Try explaining that insanity to Grandpa without feeling like a tool.
Most decently made ICE cars last a long time (10-40 years) and have a resale/trade-in value. The things that lower the value over time (engine, cylinders, transmission, radiator, catalytic converter, exhaust) don't exist in EVs.
The main thing that can wear down and affect resale in EVs is... the battery. By most accounts, 10 years and number of fast-charge cycles is the limit. Then you either replace the battery or take a big loss on resale.
A lot of hybrid Priuses had to have battery replacements once they hit the 10-year mark. Nissans used to show the number of recharge cycles adding to anxiety levels over how much time was left on the car.
Here's why swapping makes sense: it removes all of the above.
Every issue becomes a non-issue if there were universal swap stations sprinkled around neighborhoods.
Like most things, there's a trade-off:
I'm getting a nasty old battery on this swap.
I don't actually own the battery in my car. That affects the resale value.
There is no single battery pack standard. It's not a scalable solution.
The first one is mitigated by the fact that the solution is to just swap again. Or even better, have a smart BMS that reports back to the swap station data on charge depletion. That way it knows to take the bad battery packs out of circulation or refurbish the cells. It can also setup economics where the older packs cost less to swap, for people willing to trade fuel cost for convenience.
The second is where I think the logic is inverted. The battery locked inside my car is degrading over time and is actually dragging down the resale value. Taking it out of the equation means the resale value is now based on other attributes: wear and tear on motors, telematics, and consumables (tires, brakes, etc) all of which will be cheaper to replace than the battery.
The third one is the most important. We're 10-15 years into the EV adoption cycle. It's not too late to plan ahead, if people actually demand it. NACS adoption announcements show us it's possible for carmakers to agree on a single standard.
Notice I haven't mentioned distance travel. That's because stopping for a long charge can be a positive experience for some people who could use the physical break, but a pain in the ass for those who need to get to their destination quickly. Depends on which camp you fall into.
The distribution of non-Tesla supercharger networks in the U.S. is so uneven people have to decide whether to take an EV or ICE, depending on how close their destination is to a major highway. Yes, we can build out thousands more stations, but that's not addressing the concern of those who just want to get from A to B and don't have hours to spare.
Outside the U.S. the situation is much better, which is why EV adoption is going more smoothly (helps having a better selection of models). Also, in many parts of the world, public transportation is actually viable, so NO CAR is an option. But the A to B time and resale value concerns stand for many people looking for their next car.
Back to EVs. Here in the U.S. if you drive on a busy holiday to a major metropolitan area, once you get there, you're risking spending a substantial part of that trip waiting and worrying. For a spot to open up, for how long to budget for charging, and how much to trust the app telling you there's an open spot.
Personal anecdote: Today, I wouldn't buy an EV in Southern California unless I could charge at home. Next time visiting, I'll rent an ICE. It's that bad.
When it comes to charging stations, I personally like talking to people and have had great conversations with some colorful characters while waiting, but that's also time I'm not spending on the purpose of the trip.
Again, battery swapping would solve all that.
The first time I saw it in action was 7-8 years ago in Taiwan with Gogoro scooters (https://www.gogoro.com/gogoro-network/). Saw someone ride up to a 7-11, pull out their battery, pop in a new one, and be gone in 60 seconds. I was sold.
Bottom line: the best user experience is not having to spend a minute thinking about charging. Ever.
[ Again, sorry for the long soliloquy. This is the sort of topic best hashed over a pint while someone points at how daft I'm being. ]
How about not having every fucking feature imaginable to add to a car? Safety features? Fine. I don't need a touch screen. I want knobs. Hell, I don't even fucking care if the windows are crank roll. I just need to get to work so I can try to pay the bills that I need to.
I've been thinking that they load them up with "luxury" features to justify the high cost. I've been suspicious that floor liners and such don't really cost hundreds of dollars.
By law you must have a screen in the car. Backup cameras and displays are now required by law in the US as of 2018.
So car manufacturers are actually saving money by integrating the knobs and all of the various cutouts and components into the touch screen, not the other way around.
Electric windows are also probably one of the more minor features that cause expense in a modern car. If you’re looking for the actual expense you’re talking about lane keep assist, leather seats, sound systems, and having 10 trim options.
Ford really covered the entire spectrum of practical car types there.
The F-150 Lighting is an F-150. Snooze.
Why call the Mach-E a Mustang? It looks more practical/chubby like a Ford Fusion. It is classified as an Electric SUV. You have alienated Mustang users by your design and non-Mustang users by its name. You don't have to call it a Mustang because it goes fast. It's an EV. we know it goes fast.
They glued an iPad to the Infotainment system (unlike the 2024 ICE Mustang). They keep pointing out on their website that the Mustang can't tow. Why not? It does not have a transmission. Users online say it can tow 3500lbs with mods. Sell that.
It's not the fault of the suppliers. I don't even care about the price at this point. Ford just didn't design a competitive EV.
The Mach-E is an extremely competent family hauler that mom and dad can enjoy driving. (It is a chubby Fusion with a lift gate.) How many people tow with their family SUVs? A very small minority. The car itself is excellent as-is, no need to pretend it's a towing vehicle.
EV parts count is an order of magnitude less than combustion and a much smaller industrial scale production and labor. Foundry casting is a massive operation and the precision of the machining operations is critical with complex setup and alignment. There is absolutely no reason for EV's to cost so much. China is just making them and pricing them appropriately. Scrap the entire outdated and useless patent system and subsidize domestic transportation logistics. Start up some real open market capitalism, screw the oligarchy, and the problems will get solved fast. Every supply chain is corrupt, it's monopolies from top to bottom, and they are all unmotivated and terrible at markets with no competition.
There is absolutely no reason for EV’s to cost so much. China is just making them and pricing them appropriately.
"Chinese state subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles were $57 billion from 2016-2022, according to consulting firm AlixPartners, helping China become the world's biggest EV producer and to pass Japan as the largest auto exporter in the first quarter of this year." source
Scrap the entire outdated and useless patent system
I don't think that would have the positive effect you think it would.
We subsidize things all the time too. Foresight and planning with good timing while we have a government that implodes for stupidity and a failure at fundamental game theory is no one's fault but our own. We had a traitor of a president and by all metrics the worst president in all of our history and he is still running for office again. This is the find out part of "fuck around and find out." We hired pure corruption, and now corruption can't catch up to the real world. We failed. The McCarthy bullshit about blaming China for our incompetence is nonsense.
The vast majority of US patents are absolute trash designed to prevent competition for all the wrong reasons. They are used as frivolous nonsense in almost every case. They act as the primary barrier to the average person. There are very few spaces where a startup can build anything big based on real innovation. Yes, I want to make a market so volatile that size itself is a liability of impossible odds. I want to see the oligarchy go broke because exceptionalism is a myth. We are all a product of our environment and our opportunities. Most people have very few opportunities now, so take out the gatekeepers. We're failing anyways. The primary candidate for president is a traitor. You can't get a bigger sign of total failure than that.
Have they tried making cars that most people can actually afford? The only people I've seen by the F-150 are YouTubers doing reviews, seriously that's it.
My local lumber/hardware store has purchased a bunch of them for deliveries in the city.
Ford EVs are everywhere I look now. Second only to Tesla. Anecdotal, but I'm sure not all of them are YouTubers. Most of them look like actual working trucks with gear in the back (for the lightning. Obviously not for the Mach-e which I see more of)
Safety legislation makes this impossible. A 1968 beetle was a metal shell with few seats in it. Now, EuroNCAP mandates automatic breaking and lane-keep assist to get a 5 out of 5 rating. No manufacturer wants 4 stars or 😱 below, because no mother would allow little bobby to be strapped into a car that "wasn't safe".
It's not the touch screen that makes it expensive. It the structural engineering, the airbags, the driving sensors, the software, the crash testing... The screen is the gloss on top that makes you feel ok about it all costing so much.
Industry regulation is often used as a way to ring-fence an industry from new entrants. Nobody but the existing players have a hope in meeting the regulations, except in this case they been hoisted with their own petard. Companies can't make anything but "luxury" level cars as safety requirements are too high to be able to make "consumer" level cars which comply and also make profit.
You do realize that vertical integration is just another way of saying megacorporation, or multinational, or monopoly, or cartel? Vertical integration makes huge, soulless corporations, that are inflexible and unable to adapt. They are exactly the thing that most people hate about American capitalism.
Just look at Toshiba, GE, Ford, and GM for some examples of companies that abandoned or outright collapsed under the weight of vertical integration. Oh wait... it seems like Ford and GM have already done the vertical integration thing and largely abandoned it. In fact, could it be that the existing remnants of previous vertical integrations are exactly what makes them so unable to "just switch to EVs" like you're suggesting?
So I went out to buy the smallest car I could. Just to drive downtown to work. There's really two choices where I am: A Hyundai Venue or a Mitsubishi Mirage. There's a month+ wait on either, and used ones seem to only lose about $1k of value a year.
Appparently There's no market for small cars though!
Peeople are complaining that cars are too big, they have too many features, that they have touch screens.
I got news for you: you’re old.
People love large SUVs, especially 3-row SUVs, because they need to haul the kids and their friends and maybe even some camping gear at the same time.
People like the large touchscreens because they’re easy to use and show your map. And if done right (Model Y), they make the interior of the car less busy and distracting compared to traditional gauges and buttons.
Everyone has different preferences though. I hope you get your electric 1965 economy car with crank windows, no gosh dang air conditioning, and a speedometer with an orange needle. But that isn’t the secret to turning around Ford’s sales.