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1d ago

Trump doesn’t seem to know why he launched a giant trade war

www.vox.com Trump doesn’t seem to know why he launched a giant trade war

The president’s reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico keep changing (and none make sense).

Donald Trump just imposed a 25 percent tariff on virtually all goods produced by America’s two largest trading partners — Canada and Mexico. He simultaneously established a 20 percent across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods.

As a result, America’s average tariff level is now higher than at any time since the 1940s.

Meanwhile, China and Canada immediately retaliated against Trump’s duties, with the former imposing a 15 percent tariff on American agricultural products and the latter putting a 25 percent tariff on $30 billion of US goods. Mexico has vowed to mount retaliatory tariffs of its own.

This trade war could have far-reaching consequences. Trump’s tariffs have already triggered a stock market sell-off and cooling of manufacturing activity. And economists have estimated that the trade policy will cost the typical US household more than $1,200 a year, as the prices of myriad goods rise.

All this raises the question: Why has the US president chosen to upend trade relations on the North American continent? The stakes of this question are high, since it could determine how long Trump’s massive tariffs remain in effect. Unfortunately, the president himself does not seem to know the answer.

In recent weeks, Trump has provided five different — and contradictory — justifications for his tariffs on Mexico and Canada...

...more in the article.

United States | News & Politics @lemmy.ml

floofloof @lemmy.ca

1d ago

Trump doesn’t seem to know why he launched a giant trade war

www.vox.com /politics/402530/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-explanation

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138 comments

It was really weird when he was telling Zelensky during that meeting that he and Putin had been through hell with the collusion investigation. Like why would putin care?

Cuz he is a puppet, a Russian asset and generally not an intelligent person nor a good businessman.

He's a very smart person /s

Market manipulation. If you can tank the stock market at a time YOU know well in advance, then you stand to profit "tremendously".
He or people in his stead might have purchased put options ahead of the anouncement of tariffs. -> profits When he then says "it was just a prank brooo!" he can make money by buying the now devalued assets and sell them as soon as they recover. rinse repeat.
I smell market manipulation maybe I am mistaken this smell and it is really the smell of mental instability....
- This only works so well. Especially when he's proven that he flip flops as often as he does, no one will reinvest, because who knows when the next time he does something stupid to tank the market again. The smarter ones will actually catch onto the grift, and see it for what it is, and just pull out altogether so when the recession/depression hits full on, they at least have something instead of nothing.

He can't exactly say "destabilization".
Oh wait, he totally would. In this politicsl climate it doesn't matter anyway.

Of course he knows. The goal is to crash the economy so the people who still have money when everyone lost theirs, i.e. the oligarchs, can buy up all these assets/companies that went bankrupt. And in the future when the markets recover, they have even more power. Losing a couple billion now is nothing in comparison to the long term gain

Because republicans want to fund the country entirely from tariffs instead of taxes.
Which worked out great for every country that has ever tried it.
- Tariffs are taxes.

He is a Russian asset and has been since at least 2014
- He has to be. I can't think of any other reason why he'd be trying to hard to antagonize and disrespect long-time allies, while praising Russia. He then made that ridiculous statement that Ukraine started the war, when Russia was the one who invaded them, and also said that Zelensky should be 'nicer' to Putin. But Putin, who ordered the attack that caused who knows how many deaths, shouldn't be 'nicer'?
  There was also the first term, where Trump fired the FBI director over an investigation into Russia, and then told Russia that he fired 'that nut job'. What kind of message does that send to their own people? Not just that he fired the director, but that he bragged about it to the people he was investigating.
  I honestly think most of the GOP knows, but they're too embarrassed to admit it. Or maybe it's just pride, they think it's beneath them to be held accountable to anyone.
  
  ...or they're on the take as well.
- Yeah. Dude knows exactly why he's weakening America as much and on every front as possible, it's just he can't exactly say the truth and isn't smart enough to effectively lie about it.

He keeps claiming they are "abusing us", but... Like, why did he make that deal then last time he was in office?

Uhm something something illegal rapist immigrants high on fentanyl. I've got tee-time in 10.

Because at his age it was easier than getting penis-enlarging surgery.

Of course he doesn't. He should be in elder care not in the White House.
- Synonym for the past 4 years tbh. But hey, I (as a non-American) would be okay with old but not insane president. Guess we got both this time around.
  
  That was how I made peace with Biden in the first place.
  "You aren't voting for the man, you're voting for the cabinet and judges he appoints".
  Atleast Biden's cabinet was more-or-less competent. I didn't always agree with them, but atleast there was a logic outside of "this will only benefit the obscenely rich/Russia"

I never liked that many seem to be of the idea that Trump is an absolute buffoon who doesn't know what he is doing. He and his goons are not headless chickens. They are not stupid, and know incredibly well what they are doing and why.
You don't get to win an election twice if you're as much of an idiot as most make him out to be. If we keep underestimating our 'opposition', we will continue to be defeated.
See this article for more: https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/
TLDR:
In this article, Yanis Varoufakis analyzes Donald Trump's economic strategy, arguing that it is more sophisticated than his critics assume. Trump's focus on tariffs is part of a broader plan to reshape the global economic order, which Varoufakis describes as an "anti-Nixon Shock." Trump believes the U.S. has been exploited due to the dollar's role as the global reserve currency, which he sees as a burden rather than a privilege. He aims to weaken the dollar to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, while maintaining its reserve status to fund U.S. deficits and military power.
Trump's plan involves using tariffs to pressure foreign central banks to lower interest rates, thereby depreciating their currencies relative to the dollar. This would offset the price increases caused by tariffs on U.S. consumers. The second phase of his strategy involves bilateral negotiations with key countries, leveraging tariffs and security threats to force them to appreciate their currencies and make concessions, such as buying more U.S. goods or relocating manufacturing to the U.S.
Varoufakis acknowledges the risks, including potential domestic backlash from Wall Street and the possibility of foreign countries, particularly China, creating an alternative financial system. However, he argues that Trump's plan is coherent and should not be underestimated, even if it diverges sharply from traditional economic thinking.
- That's definitely someone's opinion of what they are doing. I think he's fallen victim to looking really hard for a plausible reason for emotional behavior. Trump and his admin seem more hell bent on gaining leverage in order to increase greatness and power over others and eventually profit. They aren't looking to save or kill the dollar or reset the economy. In my opinion as an uneducated person they want to deregulate then tank the markets to create an environment where the wealthiest will buy up the discounted assets and profit when the economy swings back. Nothing more than a shortsighted opportunity to consolidate power and wealth, the same way he is trying to consolidate power into the executive branch.
- I don't doubt the reputation of the writer or his general knowledge of economics...
  But this is coping. The Trump administration is trying to wave their hands around and create a giant fuss for people like us and this writer to speculate on and create debates and panels to think about... while he and his people simply walk out of the white house with the treasury and all the inside investment opportunities they will ever want.
  He's just making chaos, plain and simple. These ideas about his master plan to disrupt the world's reliance on the US dollar? Distraction and coping.
  I agree this administration is more clever than we give them credit for, but any house thief can step up their game and pull of a heist when they set their mind to it, it's not some kind of magic skill. If anything, I think it's harmful to assume Trump is at all smart or has a plan because this makes a lot more assumptions than the most simple answer which is almost always the correct determination. He is making a mess because his ONLY plan is to make you think he has a plan. He does this with literally everything he says or announces, why would anyone think this is different? This is EXACTLY the fucking delusion I was railing against in another comment. There is no plan. Nobody is coming. Stop thinking others are smarter than you or have a backup plan.
  My evidence? We've done all this fucking before, this is part 2 of a failure of a presidency. He didn't change the world before, he won't here. (Other than diminishing the US role in geopolitics so Russia can take center stage, all he really wants right now)
- Dude that makes no sense at all. He wants to depreciate the dollar by putting on tariffs, an action you yourself admit depreciates all OTHER currencies, thereby increasing the value of the dollar?
  Then after that he'll "negotiate" to have the other countries to appreciate their currencies? By buying US goods and companies?? Both of those things appreciate the US dollar. China has been selling their goods to the US (something which should appreciate their currency) without appreciating their currency by buying property and companies in the US so they never have to use the US dollar to buy their own currency. This increases the value of the dollar while decreasing demands for the Chinese currency. This has been widely seen as unfair currency manipulation by China.
  Things that increase demand for US dollars such as buying US goods and investing in the US APPRECIATE the value of of the US dollar. I haven't read the article yet, but I hope your summary is incorrect, because Varoufakis is generally a very intelligent left wing thinker and I would be surprised to see this kind of gaffe in basic economics.
  Edit: here is a link to the article since the one above didn't work for me.
  https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2025/02/21/donald-trumps-economic-masterplan-unherd/
  While tariffs would work against Trump's plan (by deppreciating foreign currencies) they give Trump revenue he can spend with congressional approval. Then for the countries that make a deal he'll either force them to appreciate their currencies by swapping US dollars for their own currency (to depreciate the dollar), OR make them buy very long term US bonds (stabilizing the US debt markets) and buying US weapons (diluting the cost of US military R&D). Trump hopes this lets him depreciate the dollar while keeping it as a reserve currency (having his cake and eating it too).
- The thing is, I don't doubt there is an actual reason why these plans have some more intelligent purpose behind them; I doubt that Trump is the one thinking of this. I'm of the belief that Trump has a bunch of yes men around him that are smart and able to coerce him to do these things through careful manipulation strategies and feeding into his ego.
  
  The project 2025 people already had every executive order and move lined up ready for him. No understanding required .
- I'm shocked that more people don't consider a change in perspective on global economics. It's been clear for a long time that the existing system is unsustainable.

I know why he did it. Because that's what his best best friend from Kremlin said and his two last working brain cells are in vacation playing golf.
He probably doesn't understand that if US stops all trading, will become just a bigger North Korea with nukes.

The chaos is the point: make nothing normal, make nothing certain, and he can be free to do anything.

Techbro led gvmt - move fast, break stuff. Chaos leads to opportunity to profit, by which I mean him and his class to profit.

- Either that or Trump is following orders.
  
  I mean, it's getting harder and harder each day to argue against him deliberately destroying the west.
  
  He's following orders but he forgot what they were, too.
  
  Yeah that’s the conclusion isn’t it

It’s part of their plan to eliminate the IRS and federal taxation, to be replaced by a universal sales tax. However, trump doesn’t have the authority to do that. But he can tariff. And a tariff is a little bit like a sales tax.
Therefore, we get tariffs.
Now, the other problem is that the tariff revenue is going to be like 1/10 that of the IRS tax revenue, which will require a 90% reduction in federal spending. Including defense, research, healthcare, and social security. Can’t collect social security tax if the IRS doesn’t exist either, so social security is getting axed.
It will of course make 56 million seniors homeless, but thats a small price to pay for a 15% pay bump for me!

Am I the only one surprised at how low the cost per household could be? I keep thinking it should be quite a bit higher.

Putin said: "go forth and break shit" and here we are.
- Also Putin, " say I'm not a bad person"
- yup. it's successfully costing america its allies.
  It's not inappropriate though. I've been saying for years Canada should not be so closely allied with such a fickle country.

I don't think Trump knows very much about anything he's doing, whether this or anything else.
(Incidentally, this also means I don't think he's doing most of the bad things he's doing out of malice or dictatorial ambitions. He just has no idea about anything he's doing.)

Just my opinion as a layman: the tariffs give his corporate backers all the excuse they need to jack up prices even higher.
- And when he takes the tariffs off, the prices never go back to the original starting point.
- That, plus it seems very likely that he and friends are just manipulating the market to trade on the predictable moves he's causing. Ya know, the kinda stuff that earned Musk some mild hand slaps and theatrical pearl clutching (in addition to giant financial benefits) in recent years.
  
  It's basically how Musk got rich. Intelligent market manipulation.
- Agree, inflation can theoretically increase not only prices, but wages to compensate the increased cost of living, therefore appear as a boomed GDP, bringing the debt to GDP ratio lower without actually reducing debt. Eu, china, Russia all have much lower debt to GDP. Of course in reality inflation is hard to manage once it gets out of hand, and the levels of interest rates don't give enough space for corrections, and the problem of inflation being the reduced consumption leading to a lesser increase of GDP.
  
  GDP is always calculated in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) GDP.
  Inflation does not reduce debt to GDP by increasing the perceived GDP, but by devalueing the debt owned, as it is a fixed sum with usually interest rates fixed for a certain time
- yup, it forces everyone to raise prices, including competitors.

Apparently It's supposed to get rid of the browns and the gays and the women and everyone else until it's just a bunch of old white men sitting around, counting money, and masturbating to AI porn? Kind of like a hateful gross version of Scrooge McDuck.
- It seems to be working, I signed my ticket out of here. I'm a brown and queer woman. Just need to survive until immigration goes through.
  
  Godspeed friend, hope this place will be worthy of you again someday
  
  If you don’t mind, how are you pulling it off? Just trying to get ideas too.
- Spooge McFuck
  
  Stooge McCuck
  
  Stoolge mcduck
- Scrooge McDuck was also pretty awful. They had to invent a nemesis for him, Flintheart Glumgold, just to make him not seem so bad by comparison.
  
  Donald is in indentured servitude after all. Gnarly man.

And economists have estimated that the trade policy will cost the typical US household more than $1,200 a year
Remember this, when you hear about tax cuts for the wealthy.
_This _comment _is _licensed _under _CC _BY-NC-SA _4.0
- Funny, isn't that the exact amount of the stimulus checks he handed out during his first presidency?
- That is... less than I'd have guessed.
  
  ...willl cost the typical US household more than $1,200 a year...so far.
- off topic, but what does your signature mean? can you really copyright your comments? I've never seen this before
  
  It's the equivalent of those Facebook posts you see telling Zuck that you don't consent to your data being stored and sold.
  
  can you really copyright your comments?
  By default, everything you write, from a novel to an Internet forum shitpost, is not only copyrighted by you but also "all rights reserved."
  What that guy is doing is (a) making his writings more available for reuse than they would be otherwise, and (b) making a point about how fucked-up it is that corporations treat stuff posted to social media as if it were a free-for-all they could use however they want.
  
  Here you go: https://lemmy.world/comment/9805932
  and: https://lemmy.world/comment/9850401
  _This _comment _is _licensed _under _CC _BY-NC-SA _4.0
- That's chicken change if you make, say, $80K+. Significant if you make, say, $20K. (Thinking about individuals, not households, adjust accordingly. And COL is a huge thing depending.)
  In any case, I'd take that number with a bucket of salt. Can't see any way that number was calculated meaningfully this early in the game.

The big corps can weather the storm, smalls will have to sell, consolidate and monopolize is the plan as I see it
- Judging by what happened back in 2008 no, big corps just go under. They will not survive this.
  
  Yeah, they have no savings because they plow all profits into stock buy backs. Hell, a lot of them have borrowed money to do buy backs.

Market manipulation. He is also a TV show host, so he is a showman. He likes creating drama.
He is famous for bad management, causing his casinos to go bankrupt. His management style is going to bankrupt US and somehow make him richer.
- Actually in his previous presidency he managed to lose personal wealth rather than increase it. He is so incompetent he can't even enrich himself with 4 years of being president lol.
- Why can't we make him unalive? He wouldn't be able to play with WWIII that way...
  
  Or just watch him bankrupt USA just like his casino, I think US need to go through that pain to realize why they should not vote for a showman, TV show host again.
  Sun Tzu: "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."

All this raises the question: Why has the US president chosen to upend trade relations on the North American continent?
It's because the trade agreement trump's unhappy with was made by a raging moron.
- For everyone else following along, the USMCA that was put in place after Trump renegotiated NAFTA in his first term… was made by Trump. So he’s unhappy with his own legacy. Which seems on brand for him, tbh.
  
  At the time he was extremely proud of it. It was the best deal ever made.
  
  Part of the agreement allows for a review next year and his complaints could have been addressed them, but apparently negotiated such a lousy deal he can't wait that long.
- The same moron who sunk casinos somehow
  
  That casinos well known to be money laundering for the Russians so it's intentional, him not paying g contracters was where he had his scams
  
  The secret ingredient is crime. The casinos were fronts for money laundering and "failed" on purpose as part of the scam.
- Hope that's sarcasm because the USMCA was signed and implemented by Trump
  
  OP made a factual statement.
  
  Mr Trump actually said "I don't know who would have signed this thing. It's so bad!" about nafta2.
- Must be that same idiot president of the Virgin Islands.
- It's also because the rest of the people in charge (mainly Republicans) aren't doing anything to stop them. It also has to do with Americans being largely stupid.
  Most republicans aren't going to do anything because if they go against Trump ... Trump will skewer them and they'll lose their seat because their voters are stupid too.

Trump's 'beautiful' tariffs are just ugly taxes on consumers and businesses alike.
🐱

He had the idea to raise tariffs, and he believes all his ideas are really good, so he followed his own good advice and raised tariffs, dead simple.

Look at the Project 2025 document, its supposedly written by the heritage foundation but has a section on building a border wall and doing capital punishment. Its clearly crafted by Trump.
Inside it talks about tariffs, using them to force other countries to lower their tariffs against the US. I assume its meant to force a free trade agreement that is 100% free trade, and not a misnomer like it is now, he wants the massive shock so that country are entirely submissive.
- You think trump is capable of not just coming up with the worst political takes known to man, but also is even aware of that much policy?
  I think you give him way more credit than he deserves
- Seems like it's not going according to plan then huh. US opponents are anything but submissive right now. I don't think US has the capacity for a long game.

Because his only job now is to sign any papers handed to him by his posse of self enriching gremlins. He doesn't need anyone's vote anymore, he doesn't need anyone's money (except if it starts with a B) and doesn't care anymore because he will likely die in office. If he signs horrible shit billionaires around him want, then he gets to coast as president, no thinking involved. This is what he is doing.

Market manipulation .... upset the system .. make it dive ... buy cheap ... sell them high
Keep doing this for the next four years until you become king of the world!
- Stocks have gone up though. I don't understand it
  
  Because Trump is going to buckle on the tariffs. He will come up with some reason they aren't needed, or they're severely reduced, and he pretends he's the hero in the story.
  The MAGA will lick his anus and everyone else will be like "Dafuq old man?"
  
  Because hundreds of millions of people believe him and corporations bow to him and expect favour.

I don't get the $1200 #... If every component of my purchase goods is 25% higher to the manuf passed to me, shouldn't it be 25% of my annual spend?
- Not every good is imported. Not every country has tariffs leveed against it.
  
  They are tariffing imported raw materials as well, like aluminum and steel.
- 25% on top of the old price, for goods not produced domestically. Assuming that's all of them, that'd be 25% of your spend going towards products (Services are part of your spend, but don't get tariffed), indeed. But some things get produced in the US, so I imagine they factored that in there. For the average household, this seems to amount to about $1200/a
  
  Well until you buy a car. So that $40,000 suv is now $50,000
  
  Not arguing with you, just want to point out 25% is the new tax but that doesn’t mean the price is only going up 25%.

Also Trump: Has anyone seen my tan spray? Sir, you left it in the fridge again. Here. That's not it, that's barbecue sauce!

This is just disingenuous.
Lookup trade balance with each one of these. EU, china, Canada and Mexico and all of these are majorly disbalanced
- And everyone knows that global economics is a zero-sum game, and therefore a "trade imbalance" means "we're losing."
  So fucking dumb. Simple-minded fucks.
  
  So explain it
- You're an idiot
- It looks imbalanced until you understand that you guys are the only ones manufacturing dollars

Playing stupid games.

138 comments